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A Lesson/Reference Position for All

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 31 March 2008, at 4:40 p.m.

In Response To: A Lesson/Reference Position for All (Bill Riles)

This position is in Wachtel's book. If I remember correctly, running out is right for money - but it's real close. How about at this score? It basically depends on how close to normal the g and bg prices are at this score. For money, single game swings are from +2 to -2, a g loss makes you -4 making the gammon price 1/2, while a bg loss makes you -6 which makes the bg price 100%.

At this score running out gets you g'ed and down 1-8 to 13 with about 18.5% match equity (ME). Getting bg'ed puts you down 1-10 with about 9.5% ME. Winning a single makes it 3-4 with about 45% ME; losing a single makes it 1-6 with approx 27.5% ME.

These are pretty close to money g and bg prices so the run or stay decision is a close call. One factor that might be enough to swing it to staying is that if Ray does hit and then it eventually goes R/T, John will get far less value from owning the cube that he would at an even score.

My guess is that, between 2 evenly matched players, staying is marginally better.

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