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Cube action when a miss invites a recube

Posted By: RobertFontaine
Date: Sunday, 23 August 2015, at 1:53 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action when a miss invites a recube (AP)

How I would do this if it was important to me....

(I would ignore white's possible 22 next roll and asume white wins if blue misses).

Blue hits... 11 - 1's 11 - 4's and 22

23/36 to hit 1 checker.

18/36 = 50% 1/36 = 2.8% (2.77) * 5 = 14%

64% favoured to hit. 36% favoured to miss.

So ignoring gammons it's a pretty clear double/take for $

Calculating the chance of a gammons...

With 2 men on the bar and a nice bearoff it's about 40%

For the sake of not doing math let's say we have a 1 in 4ish chance of picking up both men before we pass on by. 25% * 40% = 10% (on the high side - I'd guess closer to around 7) B;ue on roll, single ply analysis...

We can ignore bg's for the sake of simplicity again and the % is about 0 in practice.

If I remember correctly Gammons are worth half as much as wins (can't remember why) so let's assume the gammon price is worth 3.5-5%

So thats 67.5-69% vs. (36) 32.5%-31% still a take.

I assume whites chance of gammon in the race is approximately zero.

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