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Cube action when a miss invites a recube

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 23 August 2015, at 4:27 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action when a miss invites a recube (AP)

If R/T, we hit and win 20 of the 21 hits with 5 of these being gammons. That is +96 points. We lose 4 points on the 15 non-hitters so the net equity is +36 points if we redouble.

If no redouble, I'll say we win all of the 21 hits with the same 5 gammons. That is + 52 points. We then win about 10% of the 15 misses which equals -24 points. So the net is +28 if we don't recube.

Some of my estimates could be off a bit but since the difference is > .2 pts/game, the conclusion to redouble has to be correct.

Another way to do the math is as follows: If R/T, we win 20 games with 5 gammons of the 21 hits. So add half of the net g's to our win total which makes you a 22.5 to minus 1.5 fav in the 21 hits for a +24 net in these 21 games. You're then -15 on the missing numbers for a net of +9. Then multiply by the cube level of 4 for a net of +36. If NR/T, 21 to 0 with 5 g's becomes 23.5 to minus 2.5 for a net of +26 in the 21 hits. You then win 1.5 of the 15 misses so you're -12 in this category. The net is then +14 times the cube level of 2 for +28.

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