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43B21$33(5&21pts) 61 ???

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 1 April 2008, at 4:44 a.m.

In Response To: 43B21$33(5&21pts) 61 ??? (neilkaz)

I wouldn't hit on the 17 or play 24-18 6-5 so that leaves 3 candidates: 11-5 24-23, 11-5 6-5, or 13-7 6-5. If it's 11-5 with the 6 then 24-23 with the ace looks better than 6-5 so it's between 11-5 24-23 and 13-7 6-5. You are down a bit in the race which, in a way, argues for priming and against splitting, but the oppt is anchored on your 4-point so a priming approach might not be the best GP. Blue does have all those outfield blots to clean up and not splitting makes it a lot easier for him to do so. How risky is splitting? Rolls like D4, 64, and 41 could lead to a successful blitz but most of these are good rolls anyway. So I think I'd play 11-5 24-23 OTB.

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