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My favorite position from Pitt

Posted By: Stanley E. Richards
Date: Wednesday, 2 April 2008, at 5:32 a.m.

In Response To: My favorite position from Pitt (Chuck Bower)

Initially, I thought that this was a ND/T due to the huge cube revig. Yet, I was just guessing about the GWC. I find it easier to guess GWC in early or mid game scenarios. Late game scenarios are a bit trickier and require careful evaluation of the next two moves. It seems that White leaves an opening with 12 rolls (26, 33, 34, 35, 36, 43, 44, 53, 55, 62, 63, and 66). Five of those openings leave a double shot. Seven leave a single shot. Thus, there is a 33% chance that White will leave an opening and about a 40% chance of Blue hitting the shot. Blue hits 55% with 2 shots and 31% with one shot. Thus, 40% chance of hitting is estimated. Well, this gives Blue only about a 13% chance of gaining the advantage in the next two rolls. White's DP is 72% GWC and Blue's TP is 23% at this score. Thus, this seems to be a D/P. Nevertheless, I could only come to this conclusion after five minutes of math and shot counting. On either side of the board, I may have missed this call OTB.

Stanley

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