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Explain this one OTB

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 7 September 2015, at 12:55 a.m.

In Response To: Explain this one OTB (Max Levenstein)

Blue is forced to leave a blot. He can leave a blot on the 5pt, 6pt, or 7pt. Leaving a blot on the 7pt gives two extra shots, but it should be considered a candidate in case it has other merits.

Things are pretty grim for Blue if he gets hit, so let's focus first on what happens if he is not hit. Naturally, he'll want to get rid of his blot. A blot on the 5pt is relatively hard to clean up. He can lift it with a 2, 3, or 4, and 2's and 3's are also covering numbers, so there's bad duplication. A blot on the 6pt can be lifted with a 1, 3, 4, or 5, and can be covered with a 2. That's much better. A blot on the 7pt can be lifted with a 1, 4, 5, or 6 and covered with a 1. That looks better than the 5pt but worse than the 6pt.

Of course it would be more reliable to go through all the rolls and see how they play, as well as to look to see if there's duplication among White's hit and cover numbers, but this is already enough to suggest that leaving a blot on the 6pt is the way to go.

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