QF tells us that the bold bar/22 must be the money/DMP play or I wouldn't have posted this position ATS. The question is whether the score changes the top play. According to the rollout below, the answer is yes, with the seemingly craven bar/24 6/3 coming out on top. White's gammon value is only slightly elevated but of course Blue's gammon value is zero and he has no recube vig.
           
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | | 7 point match | pip: 140
score: 5
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--b-CCC---bB---abccb--AA:1:1:1:31:5:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 6/3 | eq: -0.924 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 17.18% (G:3.48% B:0.02%)
82.82% (G:22.02% B:0.92%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.929...-0.919) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 7/6 | eq: -0.948 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 24.30% (G:7.26% B:0.43%)
75.70% (G:37.05% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.953...-0.942) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 8/5 | eq: -0.954 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 17.64% (G:4.09% B:0.24%)
82.36% (G:24.84% B:1.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.959...-0.948) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 8/7 | eq: -0.964 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 23.66% (G:6.48% B:0.25%)
76.34% (G:37.29% B:0.84%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.970...-0.958) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Unlimited:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 140
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--b-CCC---bB---abccb--AA:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 7/6 | eq: -0.746 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 23.72% (G:5.39% B:0.18%)
76.28% (G:35.32% B:0.97%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.754...-0.739) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 8/7 | eq: -0.765 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 23.19% (G:5.03% B:0.21%)
76.81% (G:36.21% B:0.99%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.772...-0.758) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 24/23 | eq: -0.786 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 23.89% (G:5.44% B:0.18%)
76.11% (G:40.20% B:0.90%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.793...-0.778) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 6/3 | eq: -0.786 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 18.30% (G:3.31% B:0.12%)
81.70% (G:24.06% B:1.41%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.792...-0.780) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 8/5 | eq: -0.802 (-0.056) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 18.28% (G:3.58% B:0.12%)
81.72% (G:25.35% B:1.72%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.809...-0.795) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release