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Munitz v. Stick Cube

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 4 April 2008, at 6:36 a.m.

In Response To: Munitz v. Stick Cube (Stick)

Does Blue have a take? At a glance, it's not at all clear to me so White must have a redouble. Taking a closer look at Blue's take/pass decision, I notice that Blue's takepoint is a shade higher than normal, his g's are worth a little less than normal because of the 1-point overage, and his cube vig is reduced since his 8-cube cashpoint is around 80%. Another reason for the reduced cube vig (IMHO) is that when things go well for Blue the position is more likely to become "too good and not good enough" than the kind of position where Blue will be able to offer an efficient recube. I'm referring to sequences where White hits loose more than once but Blue responds with a series of 5s and then has to try and scramble his two checkers past White's multiple back checkers. If all goes well, Blue will win a gammon and the match but White will have excellent chances to hit both Blue blots and win the game. The net effect of these factors is that Blue needs slightly higher cubeless chances to take at this score than for money.

I'll guess that it's a close take with Blue winning about 20% (13% singles and 7% gammons).

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