| |
BGonline.org Forums
effective pip count mistake
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: effective pip count mistake (konstantin)
Date: Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 4:13 p.m.
Due to its ubiquitousness in race analysis one might incorrectly get the impression that the EPC captures everything relevant for a race. However, exactly how the EPC is arrived at is also important.
In this particular position Blue is obviously worse than a pure 7 roll position. The chance of misses raises the EPC about 3.7 pips. But let's examine more why.
In a pure 7 roll position (14 or 13 on ace point) there is a certain chance of needing exactly 7 rolls, a certain chance of needing exactly 6 rolls, ... . XG or Gnu can give you those values. One way that the EPC could be raised might be some of those variations taking 7 turns needing 8 turns instead. Another way is that some variation taking only 5 or 6 turns needing 6 or 7 turns instead. If you are the race leader you would much prefer the 2nd modification. The swing from 7 to 8 turns could very well be decisive but a swing from 5 or 6 turns to 6 or 7 probably just means you had a close or comfortable race win instead of a blowout race win. The given position for blue does indeed fit that 2nd modification. With an odd number of checkers, there would need to be an unlikely two misses to swing a 7 roll variation into an 8 roll variation. Most of the difference occurs when there are doubles that don't fully save a roll. With a full roll race lead already that swing is not likely to matter here.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.