BGonline.org Forums

effective pip count mistake

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 5:45 p.m.

In Response To: effective pip count mistake (Bob Koca)

I didn't quite make the right comparison.

The number of pips behind needed to take rule you used is based on a rolls vs pips position. Your actual situation is mostly a rolls vs rolls position. That means the leader is doing better than the formula indicates. The reason is less variability. For the leader compared to a pips position the worst rolls are not as bad since at least they bear off checkers stacked on the low points and the best rolls are not as good since there is probable immediate wastage. But if the leader rolls very well he is very likely to win anyways so some wastage is unlikely to matter. The effect of worst rolls not being as bad is much more important.

As a test change blue's position so there are no checkers on the ace or deuce point but make it so the EPC is the same. Compare the win chance for blue in that modified position to the original position. It is a bigger deal than many would guess (especially since it seems that many think EPC is all that matters and would guess no change at all).

Messages In This Thread

• effective pip count mistake
  konstantin -- Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 12:10 p.m.
  • effective pip count mistake
    Stick -- Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 2:48 p.m.
  • effective pip count mistake
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 4:13 p.m.
    • effective pip count mistake
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 5:45 p.m.
      • effective pip count mistake
        Konstantin -- Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 5:55 p.m.
        • effective pip count mistake
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 6:04 p.m.
    • effective pip count mistake
      Konstantin -- Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 5:51 p.m.
      • effective pip count mistake
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 30 September 2015, at 5:54 p.m.