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Rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 4 April 2008, at 2:29 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (neilkaz)

This is a likely a BIG double since I suspect GNU is taking passes next turn thereby increasing the results for no double.

I agree that D/T is probably right, for that reason. 2-ply evaluation underestimates White's equity in the original position by a lot. 1- and 3-ply evaluations overestimate White's equity, but not by as much.

Ply	Wins
1-ply evaluation	77.9%
3-ply evaluation	77.4%
Rollout	75.87%
2-ply evaluation	70.9%

If we roll out the original position with 2-ply checker play and 1-ply cube, we get a nice Double/Take:

The score (after 0 games) is: Richard Munitz 1, Stick 2 (match to 9 points)

Move number 4: Richard Munitz on roll, cube decision?

Richard Munitz	92
Stick	51
Position ID: PwAAgnY3QwAoAA Match ID: AQEgARAAEAAA

• Richard Munitz doubles

Alert: double decision marked bad

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.505	(Money: +0.498)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.952
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.048
3.	No double	+0.864	-0.088
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Richard Munitz owns 2-cube 0.771 0.000 0.000 - 0.229 0.043 0.001 +0.505 +0.864 Standard error 0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.009 Player Stick owns 4-cube 0.759 0.000 0.000 - 0.241 0.051 0.001 +1.068 +0.952 Standard error 0.003 0.000 0.000 - 0.003 0.004 0.000 0.013 0.016
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
213 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1054632752 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 1-ply cubeful prune

Annotation

1-ply cubeless equity +0.522 (Money: +0.524)
0.779 0.000 0.000 - 0.221 0.034 0.001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.048 ( +0.048)
3. No double +0.819 ( -0.181)
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass

2-ply cubeless equity +0.381 (Money: +0.383)
0.709 0.000 0.000 - 0.291 0.034 0.001
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.752
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.248)
3. Double, take +0.705 ( -0.046)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (15.8%)

3-ply cubeless equity +0.510 (Money: +0.512)
0.774 0.000 0.000 - 0.226 0.035 0.001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.023 ( +0.023)
3. No double +0.875 ( -0.125)
Proper cube action: Redouble, pass

From the original position, let's give White a decent nonhitting number like 6-2: 23/15 and have Blue fan. Now 2-ply evaluation says Double/Take, but a 2-ply rollout says Double/Pass:

The score (after 0 games) is: Richard Munitz 1, Stick 2 (match to 9 points)

Move number 6: Richard Munitz on roll, cube decision?

Richard Munitz	84
Stick	51
Position ID: PwAAgnY3QxAQAA Match ID: AQEgARAAEAAA

• Richard Munitz doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.471	(Money: +0.470)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.053	+0.053
3.	No double	+0.881	-0.119
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Richard Munitz owns 2-cube 0.747 0.000 0.000 - 0.253 0.024 0.001 +0.471 +0.881 Standard error 0.004 0.000 0.000 - 0.004 0.002 0.000 0.008 0.016 Player Stick owns 4-cube 0.779 0.000 0.000 - 0.221 0.022 0.000 +1.179 +1.053 Standard error 0.005 0.000 0.000 - 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.021 0.026
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
114 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1054630293 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.470 (Money: +0.472)
0.748 0.000 0.000 - 0.252 0.023 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.899
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.101)
3. No double +0.834 ( -0.064)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

Messages In This Thread

• Munitz v. Stick Cube
  Stick -- Thursday, 3 April 2008, at 4:37 p.m.
  • Munitz v. Stick Cube
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 3 April 2008, at 5:24 p.m.
  • Munitz v. Stick Cube
    CamFella -- Thursday, 3 April 2008, at 9:03 p.m.
  • Munitz v. Stick Cube
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 4 April 2008, at 6:36 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Friday, 4 April 2008, at 7:20 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Havard Raddum -- Friday, 4 April 2008, at 8:11 a.m.
      • Rollout
        Stick -- Friday, 4 April 2008, at 8:29 a.m.
        • Rollout
          Havard Raddum -- Friday, 4 April 2008, at 10:45 a.m.
        • Rollout
          neilkaz -- Friday, 4 April 2008, at 11:50 a.m.
          • Rollout
            Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 4 April 2008, at 2:29 p.m.
            • Rollout
              neilkaz -- Friday, 4 April 2008, at 3:39 p.m.