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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 29 October 2015, at 7:30 p.m.

In Response To: Direct builders position (svilo)





White is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 86
13 point match
pip: 157
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B--BBB--A---B-b--bceBc-B-:0:0:1:51:7:8:0:13:10

Original Position (White is fragile)


1.Rollout113/8 9/8eq: -0.701
Player:
Opponent:		34.95% (G:3.85% B:0.16%)
65.05% (G:22.30% B:1.97%)		Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.711...-0.692) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout113/12 13/8eq: -0.746 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		34.37% (G:3.57% B:0.09%)
65.63% (G:23.26% B:2.15%)		Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.756...-0.736) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 31 seconds
3.Rollout213/7eq: -0.756 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		33.97% (G:3.52% B:0.12%)
66.03% (G:23.11% B:2.24%)		Conf.: กำ 0.014 (-0.770...-0.742) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 43 seconds
4.Rollout213/12 9/4eq: -0.787 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:		33.13% (G:3.27% B:0.07%)
66.87% (G:23.28% B:2.04%)		Conf.: กำ 0.013 (-0.800...-0.774) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout29/3eq: -0.804 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:		33.50% (G:2.96% B:0.12%)
66.50% (G:24.50% B:2.88%)		Conf.: กำ 0.019 (-0.823...-0.785) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 59 seconds
6.Rollout213/8 4/3eq: -0.855 (-0.153)
Player:
Opponent:		32.53% (G:2.54% B:0.07%)
67.47% (G:24.15% B:2.89%)		Conf.: กำ 0.019 (-0.874...-0.836) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is a rollout of Svilo's position. (The XGR++ evaluation understates the margin by which making the 8pt beats its closest rival.)

The key to finding the right move is to notice that White is at critical mass. She will leave a shot with more than half(!) her numbers, including a double shot with 62. If White does leave a shot, Blue doesn't want blots on his own side of the board. For that reason, he should solidly make his (strong) 8pt.

Below are a few variants, with comments below each diagram.
White is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 92
13 point match
pip: 157
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B--BBB--A---B-d---ceBc-B-:0:0:1:51:7:8:0:13:10

Variant 1: White is less fragile


1.Rollout113/8 9/8eq: -0.754
Player:
Opponent:		33.58% (G:3.05% B:0.08%)
66.42% (G:21.50% B:1.91%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.758...-0.749) - [80.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
2.Rollout113/12 13/8eq: -0.757 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		33.51% (G:3.12% B:0.09%)
66.49% (G:21.80% B:1.93%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.761...-0.752) - [19.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
3.Rollout213/7eq: -0.765 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		33.27% (G:3.04% B:0.08%)
66.73% (G:21.84% B:1.88%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.772...-0.758) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
4.Rollout39/3eq: -0.772 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		33.44% (G:3.07% B:0.08%)
66.56% (G:22.68% B:2.15%)		Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.782...-0.763) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 50 seconds
5.Rollout413/8 4/3eq: -0.786 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		33.19% (G:2.90% B:0.06%)
66.81% (G:22.42% B:2.14%)		Conf.: กำ 0.013 (-0.799...-0.772) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 24 seconds
6.Rollout413/12 9/4eq: -0.791 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		32.74% (G:2.94% B:0.08%)
67.26% (G:22.13% B:1.91%)		Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-0.806...-0.776) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

4 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above, White will leave a shot with only half as many numbers as in the previous position (63 62 53 51 21). Making the 8pt and the builder-spreading play are "tied."
White is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 93
13 point match
pip: 157
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B--BBB--A---B-c--cccBc-B-:0:0:1:51:7:8:0:13:10

Variant 2: White is non-fragile


1.Rollout113/12 13/8eq: -0.898
Player:
Opponent:		29.68% (G:2.50% B:0.06%)
70.32% (G:20.90% B:1.76%)		Conf.: กำ 0.013 (-0.910...-0.885) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 9/8eq: -0.954 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		29.64% (G:2.47% B:0.06%)
70.36% (G:21.04% B:1.95%)		Conf.: กำ 0.016 (-0.970...-0.938) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 35 seconds
3.Rollout113/7eq: -0.971 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:		29.33% (G:2.36% B:0.06%)
70.67% (G:21.22% B:2.14%)		Conf.: กำ 0.016 (-0.987...-0.954) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 51 seconds
4.Rollout19/3eq: -0.977 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:		29.77% (G:2.62% B:0.07%)
70.23% (G:22.51% B:2.17%)		Conf.: กำ 0.018 (-0.994...-0.959) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 21 seconds
5.Rollout113/8 4/3eq: -0.980 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		29.69% (G:2.50% B:0.06%)
70.31% (G:22.19% B:2.15%)		Conf.: กำ 0.016 (-0.996...-0.963) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 42 seconds
6.Rollout113/12 9/4eq: -0.998 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:		29.08% (G:2.38% B:0.07%)
70.92% (G:21.50% B:2.15%)		Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-1.013...-0.982) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 13 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above, White will leave a shot only with 62, plus she rates to be safer on the following roll. Blue should diversify, a typical procedure that aims to make, or slot-then-make, the best point still vacant (the 3pt).
White is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 88
13 point match
pip: 157
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B--BBB--A---B-d---cdBbbB-:0:0:1:51:7:8:0:13:10

Variant 3: White won't leave an immediate shot


1.Rollout113/8 4/3eq: -0.971
Player:
Opponent:		30.96% (G:1.47% B:0.04%)
69.04% (G:24.18% B:2.57%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.976...-0.966) - [46.9%]
Duration: 3 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout19/3eq: -0.971 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		30.93% (G:1.41% B:0.04%)
69.07% (G:24.13% B:2.56%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.976...-0.966) - [43.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 30 minutes
3.Rollout213/12 13/8eq: -0.975 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		30.77% (G:1.45% B:0.05%)
69.23% (G:24.04% B:2.42%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.982...-0.968) - [9.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
4.Rollout313/7eq: -0.982 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		30.74% (G:1.44% B:0.04%)
69.26% (G:24.13% B:2.47%)		Conf.: กำ 0.008 (-0.990...-0.973) - [0.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
5.Rollout313/8 9/8eq: -0.988 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		30.58% (G:1.42% B:0.04%)
69.42% (G:24.11% B:2.48%)		Conf.: กำ 0.008 (-0.997...-0.980) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
 
1 14256 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above, (what I call) the "board gambit" sneaks into first place (though TCTC). Here, with 4/3, Blue breaks his fourth point in order to make five points faster. This can be a favorable finesse when the opponent has no shot-leaving numbers.
White is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 86
13 point match
pip: 157
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B--BBB--A---B-b--bceBc-B-:0:0:1:41:7:8:0:13:10

Variant 4: The 9pt is weaker (than the 8pt)


1.Rollout113/8eq: -0.737
Player:
Opponent:		34.58% (G:3.64% B:0.10%)
65.42% (G:23.49% B:2.30%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.744...-0.729) - [89.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
2.Rollout113/12 13/9eq: -0.743 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		34.32% (G:3.45% B:0.11%)
65.68% (G:22.81% B:2.19%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.751...-0.736) - [10.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
3.Rollout213/12 9/5eq: -0.767 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		33.81% (G:3.36% B:0.08%)
66.19% (G:23.36% B:2.27%)		Conf.: กำ 0.011 (-0.777...-0.756) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout39/4eq: -0.803 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		33.01% (G:3.14% B:0.09%)
66.99% (G:23.22% B:2.04%)		Conf.: กำ 0.012 (-0.816...-0.791) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Returning to the original board position, let's change the roll from 51 to 41. (a) Blue's 9pt is less valuable than his 8pt, and (b) 13/8 sets up 2 extra numbers to make the 3pt. Blue should therefore spread his builders (though close), despite the axiom of buttoning up when the opponent is at critical mass.

Nack

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