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A Lesson/Reference Position for All

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Monday, 7 April 2008, at 4:32 p.m.

In Response To: A Lesson/Reference Position for All (Keene)

Well, I stuck around and got backgammoned. Too bad, so sad. I didn't know what John O'Hagan suggests that the difference between 8-1 and 10-1 is so much! At tournaments I just consider the consequences. 10-1 didn't seem that much worse than 8-1. Computer analysis says: stay. So much for Wachtel's book, the worst book on backgammon ever written, imho.

I just concluded over the table that if he tosses a single ace or deuce then you are happy you stayed. That is half the time, in a match that you are losing handily. Also, if he rolls two high numbers, you leave with anything higher than a 6, and there is no cost in that scenario. The biggest risk is what happens when you roll low in this scenario.. Jon rolled 64, and I rolled 31. One MUST stay in that case and probably get BG'd. BUT, there is even a slight bonus available in that case because 9% of the time we will both roll an ace and I'll save the G, with some outside chance at winning.

Single deuce followed by a hit, leads to positions where I bet I am even money to become the favorite in the game. In my opinion, anyway.

All other factors being equal, I have found that it is a better policy to play to win, rather than not to lose. Some people suggest that I ought to run to preserve chances against a weaker opponent. Conceding an 8-1 score to 13, is a pretty arrogant statement of skill. Making the best play can't be all that bad, no matter whom your opponent is.

I honestly did not know what was right over the board. I just made the play that tries to win and doesn't give up yet, realizing full well the risks. I was glad to learn that the bots determined it to be wrong to run by .05x. Getting backgammoned in the finals is just part of life. If I win this game, then I would get called lucky, but at least I gave myself a chance to be lucky.

I wasn't worried about being more embarrassed by getting killed. I didn't want to come close, I wanted to win.

Messages In This Thread

• A Lesson/Reference Position for All
  Bill Riles -- Monday, 31 March 2008, at 3:10 p.m.
  • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
    Keene -- Monday, 31 March 2008, at 3:24 p.m.
    • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
      Coolrey -- Monday, 7 April 2008, at 4:32 p.m.
  • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
    Stick -- Monday, 31 March 2008, at 3:42 p.m.
    • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
      Achim -- Monday, 31 March 2008, at 3:58 p.m.
      • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
        Stick -- Monday, 31 March 2008, at 4:33 p.m.
    • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
      happyjuggler0 -- Monday, 31 March 2008, at 4:47 p.m.
    • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 1 April 2008, at 1:51 a.m.
  • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
    Achim -- Monday, 31 March 2008, at 3:51 p.m.
    • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
      Achim -- Monday, 31 March 2008, at 3:56 p.m.
      • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
        happyjuggler0 -- Monday, 31 March 2008, at 4:29 p.m.
  • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 31 March 2008, at 4:40 p.m.
  • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 31 March 2008, at 4:43 p.m.
  • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
    Keene -- Tuesday, 1 April 2008, at 2:35 a.m.
    • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
      Keene -- Tuesday, 1 April 2008, at 2:40 a.m.
      • A Lesson/Reference Position for All
        Stick -- Tuesday, 1 April 2008, at 3:00 a.m.