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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 23 January 2007, at 6:35 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Mon. Jan 22nd. (Stick)

It looks scary doesn't it? I'd even imagine you'd draw a fine few passes (money play or otherwise). You're not getting one from me though -- too much life after death for me to donate a point to you. Looking at this I grouped your rolls into 3 categories:

    POH on 5pt
  • 6-4, 6-3, 6-1, 4-3, 4-1, 3-1, 4-4, 3-3, 1-1
  • 15 rolls
    POH on 3pt
  • 6-5, 5-3, 5-5
  • 5 rolls
    Loose Double Hit
  • 6-6, 2-2 (hits 3!), 6-2, 5-4, 5-1, 4-2, 3-2, 2-1, 5-2 (wrong 2)
  • 16 rolls

On the surface all that may seem a bit overwhelming but as I said, even when you point on the 5 pt. if I come in immediately and make the 3 pt. anchor I'm not even sure you'd have a double then so I think my take is clear. I'll certainly have a chance next roll to either shoot at one (or two) of your blots, try to anchor up on the 5, or try to anchor up on the 3. After this there's plenty of game left for me. You certainly have the advantage but nowhere near a cash.


Match to 25, tied at 10
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
179
156
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.538
2.2% 28.3% 65.4% 34.6% 7.0% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.538 ±0.020, - live cube no double: 0.768 ±0.042 - live cube double take: 0.816 ±0.054. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 14749 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, take 0.860
2. No double 0.743 (-0.117)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.140)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Live cube
1. Double, take 0.816
2. No double 0.768 (-0.048)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.184)
Proper cube action: Double, take

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