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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 10 November 2015, at 4:50 a.m.

In Response To: whats your play here? eight (Konstantin)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 97
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DbBBBB--a-A----bbcc--bB--:2:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10

Original Position


1.XG Roller++23/15eq: -0.147
Player:
Opponent:		37.81% (G:12.96% B:0.28%)
62.19% (G:16.26% B:0.90%)
2.XG Roller++23/20 11/6eq: -0.255 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:		33.87% (G:12.14% B:0.29%)
66.13% (G:16.37% B:0.71%)
3.XG Roller++11/3eq: -0.618 (-0.471)
Player:
Opponent:		22.96% (G:5.97% B:0.10%)
77.04% (G:20.82% B:0.89%)

This thread appears to have been abandoned.

Above is the XGR++ evaluation of Konstantin's original position.

The three variants below affirm the importance of conserving numbers to play, in order to minimize the chance of crashing.

Nack






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 98
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DbBBBB--a--A---bbcc--bB--:2:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1
Blue is adjusted 11/12 (now he can hit)


1.Rollout123/15eq: -0.198
Player:
Opponent:		36.93% (G:14.02% B:0.48%)
63.07% (G:18.46% B:1.01%)		Conf.: กำ 0.013 (-0.211...-0.184) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout112/9* 9/4eq: -0.321 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent:		32.87% (G:14.43% B:0.31%)
67.13% (G:19.89% B:0.94%)		Conf.: กำ 0.011 (-0.333...-0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 13 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7059602
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 118
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BbBBBB--aAA-A--bbcc--bB--:2:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2
Blue's originally buried checkers are on the 13pt and 10pt


1.Rollout123/20 10/5eq: -0.013
Player:
Opponent:		43.25% (G:16.56% B:0.63%)
56.75% (G:16.92% B:1.34%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.018...-0.008) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
2.Rollout123/20 11/6eq: -0.034 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		42.88% (G:14.00% B:0.51%)
57.12% (G:16.06% B:1.21%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.039...-0.029) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
3.Rollout123/15eq: -0.036 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		44.29% (G:14.87% B:0.62%)
55.71% (G:20.18% B:2.34%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.042...-0.031) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
4.Rollout113/8 11/8eq: -0.062 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		40.83% (G:12.69% B:0.45%)
59.17% (G:14.06% B:0.60%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.066...-0.057) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
5.Rollout213/10 11/6eq: -0.124 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:		38.53% (G:12.36% B:0.45%)
61.47% (G:13.44% B:0.49%)		Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.133...-0.116) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 118
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BbBBBB--aAA-A--accc--bB--:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 3
Blue's originally buried checkers are on the 13pt and 10pt,
and White is adjusted 9/8


1.Rollout123/15eq: +0.029
Player:
Opponent:		46.34% (G:16.15% B:0.82%)
53.66% (G:19.23% B:2.25%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.024...+0.034) - [99.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
2.Rollout123/20 11/6eq: +0.019 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		44.48% (G:19.08% B:1.19%)
55.52% (G:17.89% B:1.53%)		Conf.: กำ 0.006 (+0.013...+0.025) - [0.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout123/20 10/5eq: +0.013 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		44.45% (G:18.20% B:1.02%)
55.55% (G:17.90% B:1.54%)		Conf.: กำ 0.006 (+0.007...+0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
4.Rollout213/8 11/8eq: -0.083 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:		40.40% (G:12.82% B:0.46%)
59.60% (G:14.27% B:0.58%)		Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.092...-0.075) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout213/10 11/6eq: -0.151 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:		37.93% (G:11.84% B:0.41%)
62.07% (G:13.96% B:0.54%)		Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.159...-0.142) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9265210
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9265210
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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