I wasn't sure but I played D (13/7 13/9) OTB. The Magriel safe/bold criteria suggest that a bold slotting play like this should be best. Running 21/11 could work as well. The checker on the 11 guards the outfield which makes it harder for White to escape. OTOH, breaking the anchor does leave 5 strong PoH numbers which hurt a lot. The RO clearly prefers D. Net g's and bg's are the same after both plays but D wins a little more often.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 130 | | 5 point match | pip: 175
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--bB-CB-----bD---bbbbB-cB-:0:0:1:64:0:1:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/7 | eq: -0.318 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.39% (G:11.59% B:0.66%)
53.61% (G:23.51% B:5.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.340...-0.296) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/11 | eq: -0.389 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.54% (G:12.12% B:0.79%)
55.46% (G:24.07% B:5.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.410...-0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 13/3 | eq: -0.410 (-0.093) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.77% (G:11.47% B:0.37%)
57.23% (G:21.20% B:1.77%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | 21/15 13/9 | eq: -0.462 (-0.144) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.83% (G:11.67% B:0.52%)
56.17% (G:26.89% B:3.70%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 13/7 5/1 | eq: -0.602 (-0.284) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.94% (G:9.08% B:0.30%)
60.06% (G:25.87% B:2.61%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2