Variants

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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 7 December 2015, at 2:15 p.m.

In Response To: Rollouts (Timothy Chow)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 102

Unlimited Game

pip: 101
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aBB-ACBD-a-a-----bbbbAbb-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
Original Position .....(Unlimited, No Jacoby)

1. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/1* eq: -0.165
Player:
Opponent: 42.13% (G:15.35% B:0.46%)
57.87% (G:25.47% B:0.91%) Conf.: � 0.018 (-0.183...-0.146) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 55 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 22/17 5/3 eq: -0.306 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent: 39.98% (G:2.98% B:0.09%)
60.02% (G:10.28% B:0.05%) Conf.: � 0.007 (-0.313...-0.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 47 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/2 eq: -0.397 (-0.233)
Player:
Opponent: 36.17% (G:7.75% B:0.43%)
63.83% (G:8.15% B:0.09%) Conf.: � 0.007 (-0.404...-0.390) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 58 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

NEXT. (Well, not just yet.)
Above is Tim's rollout of his original position, at Unlimited No Jacoby.
Below are three variants that contrast with the original. For the final variant, XGR++ evaluates R (Run, 22/15) as best (by .004) but it failed to hold up in the rollout; otherwise, four best plays would be represented.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 104

Unlimited Game
Beaver

pip: 102
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aBB-ACBD-a-a-----bbbbbAb-:0:0:1:52:0:0:2:0:10
Variant 1
White's 2pt is switched with Blue's 22pt blot

1. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/2 eq: -0.500
Player:
Opponent: 34.17% (G:6.88% B:0.41%)
65.83% (G:7.46% B:0.09%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.509...-0.492) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 28 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/1* eq: -0.611 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent: 35.91% (G:11.43% B:0.38%)
64.09% (G:26.41% B:0.92%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.013 (-0.624...-0.599) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 48 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/3 eq: -0.691 (-0.191)
Player:
Opponent: 29.80% (G:5.98% B:0.30%)
70.20% (G:11.28% B:0.14%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.012 (-0.704...-0.679) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 03 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 100

Unlimited Game
Beaver

pip: 101
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aBB-ACBD---b-----bbbbAbb-:0:0:1:52:0:0:2:0:10
Variant 2
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 15/13

1. Rollout¹ 22/17 5/3 eq: -0.258
Player:
Opponent: 40.85% (G:2.37% B:0.08%)
59.15% (G:9.86% B:0.05%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.268...-0.249) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 18 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/3 eq: -0.418 (-0.160)
Player:
Opponent: 35.12% (G:3.49% B:0.09%)
64.88% (G:8.21% B:0.07%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.011 (-0.429...-0.407) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 48 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/1* eq: -0.424 (-0.166)
Player:
Opponent: 40.87% (G:8.52% B:0.21%)
59.13% (G:25.18% B:0.83%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.011 (-0.436...-0.413) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 38 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/2 eq: -0.430 (-0.172)
Player:
Opponent: 35.32% (G:5.04% B:0.20%)
64.68% (G:7.31% B:0.05%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (-0.437...-0.423) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 38 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 102

Unlimited Game
Beaver

pip: 101
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aBB-ACBD--b------bbbbAbb-:0:0:1:52:0:0:2:0:10
Variant 3
White has her 14pt instead of blots on 13pt and 15pt

1. Rollout¹ 22/17 5/3 eq: -0.323
Player:
Opponent: 39.20% (G:2.68% B:0.08%)
60.80% (G:10.32% B:0.06%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.004 (-0.327...-0.320) - [97.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 25 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 22/15 eq: -0.330 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent: 43.77% (G:3.73% B:0.13%)
56.23% (G:24.39% B:0.34%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (-0.335...-0.324) - [3.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 20 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/2 eq: -0.356 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent: 37.00% (G:6.47% B:0.24%)
63.00% (G:7.53% B:0.07%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.004 (-0.359...-0.352) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 52 seconds
4. Rollout² 7/5 6/1* eq: -0.406 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent: 41.34% (G:9.40% B:0.21%)
58.66% (G:25.16% B:0.86%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.011 (-0.417...-0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 47 seconds
5. Rollout² 22/17 7/5 eq: -0.487 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent: 40.34% (G:4.65% B:0.14%)
59.66% (G:24.29% B:0.34%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.011 (-0.498...-0.476) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 09 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

Stick sez every play is a "next" for somebody
Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 7:31 p.m.
- Stick sez every play is a "next" for somebody
  MishyPoo -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 8:39 p.m.
  - Stick sez every play is a "next" for somebody
    Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 9:43 p.m.
- "...but nobody doesn't like Jason Lee"
  Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 10:09 p.m.
  - "...but nobody doesn't like Jason Lee"
    Stick -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 11:09 p.m.
  - "...but nobody doesn't like Jason Lee"
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 6 December 2015, at 7:22 a.m.
- Stick sez every play is a "next" for somebody
  Chase -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 11:51 p.m.
- Rollouts
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 6 December 2015, at 7:35 p.m.
  - Variants
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 7 December 2015, at 2:15 p.m.

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