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Four Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 16 December 2015, at 7:40 p.m.

In Response To: I missed this play in LA (Phil Simborg)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 76
3 point match
Crawford
pip: 47
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bDCBBB--------a------adg-:0:0:1:31:1:2:1:3:10

Original Position


1.XG Roller++6/5 3/Offeq: +1.438
Player:
Opponent:		95.89% (G:26.04% B:1.00%)
4.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++5/4 3/Offeq: +1.393 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		95.39% (G:24.25% B:0.92%)
4.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++6/5 6/3eq: +1.382 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		97.58% (G:21.50% B:0.61%)
2.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++4/Offeq: +1.336 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:		94.54% (G:22.28% B:0.71%)
5.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++5/4 5/2eq: +1.307 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:		96.72% (G:18.64% B:0.42%)
3.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

I don't see where Phil has posted bot info, so I'm doing it here (just an XGR++ evaluation).

Below are four variants. The first two contrast the original. The final two can be considered "cusps."

Nack







White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 99
3 point match
Crawford
pip: 47
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cDCBBB--------a------adf-:0:0:1:31:1:2:1:3:10

Variant 1
Compared to the original, White is adjusted by 1/24


1.Rollout16/5 6/3eq: +1.917
Player:
Opponent:		98.40% (G:47.45% B:10.53%)
1.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+1.915...+1.919) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout16/5 3/Offeq: +1.883 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		97.89% (G:46.26% B:11.18%)
2.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+1.881...+1.885) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout25/4 3/Offeq: +1.851 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		97.65% (G:44.88% B:9.84%)
2.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+1.846...+1.855) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
4.Rollout25/4 5/2eq: +1.842 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		98.19% (G:43.90% B:8.02%)
1.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+1.838...+1.846) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.9 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 85
3 point match
Crawford
pip: 47
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bDCBBB--------b------adf-:0:0:1:31:1:2:1:3:10

Variant 2
Compared to the original, White is adjusted by 1/9


1.Rollout16/5 6/3eq: +1.480
Player:
Opponent:		97.78% (G:26.22% B:2.25%)
2.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.001 (+1.479...+1.482) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout16/5 3/Offeq: +1.457 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		95.85% (G:27.00% B:2.64%)
4.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+1.455...+1.459) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 07 seconds
3.Rollout25/4 3/Offeq: +1.415 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		95.17% (G:25.59% B:2.18%)
4.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (+1.411...+1.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
4.Rollout25/4 5/2eq: +1.398 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		96.94% (G:22.96% B:1.22%)
3.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+1.395...+1.401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47.4 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 86
3 point match
Crawford
pip: 47
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bDCBBB--------a---b--ade-:0:0:1:31:1:2:1:3:10

Variant 3
Compared to the original, White owns her 6pt


1.Rollout16/5 6/3eq: +1.337
Player:
Opponent:		96.89% (G:19.97% B:1.19%)
3.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.001 (+1.336...+1.338) - [70.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout16/5 3/Offeq: +1.337 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		94.18% (G:22.65% B:1.79%)
5.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+1.335...+1.338) - [30.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
3.Rollout25/4 3/Offeq: +1.308 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		93.46% (G:21.92% B:1.84%)
6.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+1.304...+1.311) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
4.Rollout25/4 5/2eq: +1.271 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		96.13% (G:17.43% B:0.84%)
3.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+1.269...+1.274) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54.2 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 75
3 point match
Crawford
pip: 47
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bDCBBB--------a-------eg-:0:0:1:31:1:2:1:3:10

Variant 4... (suggested by David Levy)
Compared to the original, White has no 3pt blot


1.Rollout16/5 6/3eq: +1.379
Player:
Opponent:		97.65% (G:21.29% B:1.00%)
2.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.001 (+1.378...+1.380) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds
2.Rollout16/5 3/Offeq: +1.375 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		95.04% (G:23.72% B:1.37%)
4.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.002 (+1.374...+1.377) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 28 seconds
3.Rollout25/4 3/Offeq: +1.334 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		94.43% (G:22.27% B:1.46%)
5.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+1.331...+1.337) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.5 seconds
4.Rollout25/4 5/2eq: +1.305 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		97.02% (G:18.21% B:0.76%)
2.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+1.302...+1.307) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22.5 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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