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After opening roll 1a2aPC, when to drop?

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Saturday, 19 December 2015, at 3:44 a.m.

In Response To: After opening roll 1a2aPC, when to drop? (Kevin McDonough)

In addition to 51, 43 is probably a pass and 52 is too close to call. Of course there are also drops after playing the first roll wrong (e.g. 41S). But, it would be better to learn the right move than to learn to drop after the wrong move.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
2 point match
pip: 167
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:1:0:0:2:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: -1.0000
Player:
Opponent:		49.81% (G:17.56% B:2.51%)
50.19% (G:16.05% B:2.62%)		Conf.: ±0.0000 (-1.0000...-1.0000) - [25.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 10 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/9eq: -1.0000
Player:
Opponent:		49.92% (G:16.36% B:2.48%)
50.08% (G:15.66% B:2.08%)		Conf.: ±0.0000 (-1.0000...-1.0000) - [25.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 13/10eq: -1.0000
Player:
Opponent:		49.89% (G:15.84% B:2.18%)
50.11% (G:15.42% B:1.97%)		Conf.: ±0.0000 (-1.0000...-1.0000) - [25.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 45 minutes
4.Rollout124/21 24/20eq: -1.0000
Player:
Opponent:		49.68% (G:14.85% B:2.04%)
50.32% (G:14.76% B:1.70%)		Conf.: ±0.0000 (-1.0000...-1.0000) - [25.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 46 minutes
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
2 point match
pip: 167
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:1:0:0:2:10
Blue to play 52

1.Rollout124/22 13/8eq: -0.9996
Player:
Opponent:		50.01% (G:15.23% B:1.90%)
49.99% (G:14.60% B:1.55%)		Conf.: ±0.0023 (-1.0019...-0.9973) - [63.7%]
Duration: 10 hours 35 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -1.0000 (-0.0004)
Player:
Opponent:		49.58% (G:16.93% B:2.52%)
50.42% (G:15.79% B:2.34%)		Conf.: ±0.0000 (-1.0000...-1.0000) - [36.3%]
Duration: 10 hours 40 minutes
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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