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Help with XG Rollout of Advanced BG #56

Posted By: Jack Edelson
Date: Monday, 4 January 2016, at 10:04 p.m.

In Response To: Help with XG Rollout of Advanced BG #56 (Albert Steg)

If Blue misses, White will be cashing, so the double costs a full point in 12/36 games. So for the double to be profitable, it has to give at least 1/2 point extra on average in the other 24. We can assume that Blue will win a point if he doesn't double and hits (any takes for White will be very marginal), so an extra half point means 1.5. Putting aside gammons and the value of the cube, that would mean winning 7/8 of the time. But Black has barely more than that on a typical hit/fan sequence (about 16 games) and is definitely well under that when White enters (8 games). So it would seem to me to add up to a small ND/T.

Or at least that's my post-hoc rationalization. I probably would have doubled very quickly in an actual game.

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