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A short strong RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 4 January 2016, at 11:39 p.m.

In Response To: Help with XG Rollout of Advanced BG #56 (Albert Steg)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBB-----aC----Bcbbbcb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.604% (G:2.668% B:0.050%) 64.754% (G:3.064% B:0.075%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.396% (G:2.433% B:0.039%) 35.246% (G:2.605% B:0.044%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.2745 +0.6000
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.3326 (-0.0080)±0.0026 (+0.3300..+0.3351)
Double/Take:+0.3405±0.0061 (+0.3344..+0.3467)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.6595)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78623594
Moves: XG Roller+, cube decisions: XG Roller++
 
Double Decision confidence:99.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The small error your results show isn't likely enough to have made the cut to be shown in Bagai's book. One does wonder how Robertie was spot on for the emg for ND but overestimated the emg for D by 0.10.

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