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BGonline.org Forums
New York Metropolitan--Luck Factor
Posted By: Phil Simborg In Response To: New York Metropolitan "US vs World" parings (Mochy)
Date: Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 2:55 p.m.
Here we have a gathering of top players where the PR differences will be small. It will be interesting to see if there is a strong correlation between the luck factor and wins. It will also be interesting to see how often the player or team who plays with the lower PR wins.
I am not completely confident that the way XG calculates PR is perfect, so the results of this analysis won't necessarily be completely accurate. And there is a major luck factor that is never measured: which player happens to be given more challenging decisions.
Still, I think the study is worthy. If it turns out, over a long period of time, that when two players of similar PR play each other that the luck factor is the major decider of who wins, that would suggest that we might consider ways to make the game more complicated and difficult when the very top players are competing in order for skill to be more of a determinant.
Yes, yes, to those of you who say the game is great and don't fool with it. That is true for most of us. But when this game was created we didn't have bots and up until recent years even the best players in the world played very differently in different situations. Today, the best players in the world all play pretty much the same in all situations, and that suggests that some tweaks and variations might be in order to make it more interesting when two top players compete.
And of course, another thing that I think will be very interesting is a study of the blunders...not to make fun of any of these players or put them down, but to see what kinds of situations are particularly challenging to the best players in the world.
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