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Rollout Disagreement

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Thursday, 7 January 2016, at 12:11 p.m.

In Response To: Thoughts on a cube here? (Neil Robins)

I don't know what to make of this. It is especially the 0.06 difference in the D/T equity between XG and GNU that I wouldn' expect.

White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 176 9 point match pip: 99 score: 5 Blue is Player 1 XGID=--BBbdBCBB-B-----bbca---a-:0:0:1:00:5:2:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 66.55% (G:32.33% B:0.85%) 66.48% (G:33.87% B:1.39%) Opponent Winning Chances: 33.45% (G:4.74% B:0.18%) 33.52% (G:4.83% B:0.19%) Cubeless Equities +0.717 +1.614 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.871 (-0.031) ±0.012 (+0.859..+0.883) Double/Take: +0.902 ±0.016 (+0.886..+0.918) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.098) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5256 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 71284 First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 99.9% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 39 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Match to 9 points - Player2 2, Player1 5

Player 2	176
Player 1	99
Position ID: odsA8AY2dpsBAA Match ID: cAkmASAAKAAE

• Player 1 moves 11/6

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.682	(Money: +0.627)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.900
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.100
3.	Double, take	+0.843	-0.057
Proper cube action:		No double, take (36.4%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.676 0.319 0.007 - 0.324 0.048 0.003 +0.682 +0.900 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.006 Player 2 owns 2-cube 0.661 0.350 0.015 - 0.339 0.051 0.004 +1.278 +0.843 Standard error 0.001 0.003 0.002 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.011 0.013
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 799209491 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	4	11/6	+0.838
			0.664 0.279 0.003 - 0.336 0.049 0.001
	2	4	7/2	+0.802 ( -0.036)
			0.655 0.271 0.003 - 0.345 0.053 0.001
	3	4	11/10 11/7	+0.794 ( -0.044)
			0.648 0.265 0.003 - 0.352 0.055 0.001
	4	4	7/3 2/1	+0.791 ( -0.048)
			0.655 0.264 0.002 - 0.345 0.053 0.001
	5	4	11/7 2/1	+0.768 ( -0.070)
			0.647 0.259 0.003 - 0.353 0.057 0.001

Messages In This Thread

• Thoughts on a cube here?
  Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 11:30 a.m.
  • Thoughts on a cube here?
    Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 5:02 p.m.
    • Thoughts on a cube here?
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 5:37 p.m.
    • Thoughts on a cube here?
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 6:24 p.m.
  • Thoughts on a cube here?
    Keene -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 6:29 p.m.
  • PUZZLE (based on Neil's position)
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 7 January 2016, at 6:49 a.m.
    • PUZZLE (based on Neil's position)
      Carlo Melzi -- Thursday, 7 January 2016, at 7:52 a.m.
    • PUZZLE (based on Neil's position) -- SOLUTION
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 8 January 2016, at 3:53 p.m.
  • Rollout Disagreement
    Neil Robins -- Thursday, 7 January 2016, at 12:11 p.m.
    • Rollout Disagreement
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 7 January 2016, at 5:15 p.m.
  • Another PUZZLE (based on Neil's Position)
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 11 January 2016, at 6:17 p.m.
    • Another PUZZLE (based on Neil's Position)
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 12 January 2016, at 12:29 a.m.
    • Another PUZZLE (based on Neil's Position) -- SOLUTION
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 14 January 2016, at 11:31 p.m.