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Rollout convert gnubg evaluations by 0.156!

Posted By: Mislav Radica
Date: Sunday, 13 April 2008, at 7:31 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ... (Mislav Radica)

This come in my live match and I doubled and put match on the line. My opponent took and redouble next turn. I lost that game and match. OTB I was sure it is clear money double and maybe even pass for money but at this score I was not sure about double. There is lot of gammons around. Anyway I send cube and regret. Later my opponent and two other players convince me that was wrong double at this score and I become sure that I made big mistake.

Put position in GNUbg and 2ply gives me 0.147 blunder! 3ply think it is 0.068 error and 4ply gives me 0.085 equity lost. I made rollout and what was result, double was marginally correct!!

How one can be sure about gnubg cube handling on all plies in his evaluations after this! After this only rollouts for cube decision have sense for me.

All these players, including me play between 4.5-6.5 error rate on average. And my question to Klaus (related to our previous disscusion) here is how one can become better without rollouts? If one trust evaluations one will never up in higher level. We just need rollouts as learning tool (as bot oriented players) if we want to play on world class level.

The score (after 4 games) is: White 4, Blue 5 (match to 9 points)

Move number 23: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	110
Blue	126
Position ID: jdsFAxDMrisABg Match ID: UQkgAUAAKAAA

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0,6144	(Money: +0,5234)
	68,22% 24,72% 0,72% - 31,78% 9,25% 0,31%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,7524
2.	Double, pass	+1,0000	+0,2476
3.	Double, take	+0,6050	-0,1473
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (37,3%)

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		+0,6555	(Money: +0,5597)
	69,70% 25,18% 0,70% - 30,30% 8,87% 0,44%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,7662
2.	Double, pass	+1,0000	+0,2338
3.	Double, take	+0,6974	-0,0687
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (22,7%)

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		+0,6307	(Money: +0,5419)
	69,28% 24,42% 0,79% - 30,72% 9,18% 0,41%
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,7564
2.	Double, pass	+1,0000	+0,2436
3.	Double, take	+0,6713	-0,0851
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (25,9%)

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0,6359	(Money: +0,5914)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0,8257
2.	Double, pass	+1,0000	+0,1743
3.	No double	+0,8166	-0,0091
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 70,09% 25,88% 2,55% - 29,91% 8,90% 0,55% +0,6359 +0,8166 Standard error 0,15% 0,37% 0,26% - 0,15% 0,23% 0,08% 0,0048 0,0060 Player White owns 4-cube 71,74% 30,15% 3,24% - 28,26% 12,45% 0,80% +1,1478 +0,8257 Standard error 0,18% 0,77% 0,34% - 0,18% 0,48% 0,17% 0,0095 0,0110
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1373 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1052842145 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action ...
  Mislav Radica -- Saturday, 12 April 2008, at 3:03 p.m.
  • Cube action ...
    Bill Riles -- Saturday, 12 April 2008, at 3:07 p.m.
  • Rollout convert gnubg evaluations by 0.156!
    Mislav Radica -- Sunday, 13 April 2008, at 7:31 a.m.
    • absolutely no surprise
      Klaus Evers -- Sunday, 13 April 2008, at 10:01 a.m.
      • Yes, you said that rollout for cube is must. *NM*
        Mislav Radica -- Sunday, 13 April 2008, at 11:25 a.m.
    • probability for gammons in rollout?
      Klaus Evers -- Sunday, 13 April 2008, at 10:12 a.m.
      • probability for gammons in rollout?
        Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 16 April 2008, at 1:50 p.m.
      • probability for gammons in rollout?
        tansley -- Wednesday, 16 April 2008, at 4:43 p.m.