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absolutely no surprise

Posted By: Klaus Evers
Date: Sunday, 13 April 2008, at 10:01 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout convert gnubg evaluations by 0.156! (Mislav Radica)

First of all, to start with, I never said we don't need rollouts and I never said you can always trust 2ply evaluation. Especially for cubeaction you almost always need a rollout.

I have just a different opinion about the rollout settings/parameters that you need to become a better player. (pls read this also)

Personally, I have rolled out more than 1000 or 1500 cubeactions over the past two years, and seeing a difference of more than 0.150 emg eqity between 2ply eval and rollout is absolutely no surprise! This is especially true for blitzing positions, positions with elements of a holdinggame and prime vs. prime.

In your position, we have a holdinggame and some blitz potential.

At this score, I would have rolled on, trying one more roll to blitz and gammon him. at -4;-5 you have a cash around 74% gwc (if there were no gammons in the position), and you just don't win that often. Plus you probably win at least 20% gammons (these are my estimations), therefore this is a play on for me.

Cheers, Klaus

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