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probability for gammons in rollout?

Posted By: Klaus Evers
Date: Sunday, 13 April 2008, at 10:12 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout convert gnubg evaluations by 0.156! (Mislav Radica)

In the rollout data, when Player Blue owns 2-cube, he wins 25.9 gammons. But after a D/T he wins 30.15 gammons.

From Raccoon I learned that these rollout split probabilities (single wins, gammons, backgammons) are all cubeless anyway.

So, where do the additional 4.2% gammons come from after D/T? Especially since blue's strategy would be to play it like DMP, not like GG! (I have noticed such a huge difference for the two possible cubepositions in a rollout quite often, but have no idea why that is)

How can we trust even the rollout data with such inconsistencies?

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