14/7* is, of course, correct.
The score (after 0 games) is: MandM1951 0, OPP 0 (match to 9 points)
Move number 3: MandM1951 to play 52
| MandM1951 | 157 |
|---|---|
| |
| OPP | 167 |
Position ID: 4HPwIBHgc/AFIA Match ID: MIEqAQAAAAAA | |
1. Cubeful 4-ply 14/7* Eq.: +0.209
55.4% 14.0% 0.5% - 44.6% 10.8% 0.3%
4-ply cubeful prune
2. Cubeful 4-ply 24/22 13/8 Eq.: +0.107 ( -0.103)
53.0% 12.7% 0.4% - 47.0% 11.6% 0.3%
4-ply cubeful prune ---
I posted this because my Whopper was a sort-of variation, I think, of Bower Syndrome. It's not that I didn't see the best move. Even worse, I saw it, but quickly rejected it, and then didn't go back to it after looking for alternatives.
It was late, I had played a lot of bg already, I was tired, felt stale, and had a 9-point match vs a good opp ahead of me, blah, blah, blah. (All the usual excuses.) Anyway, when the dice landed on 5-2, I immediately looked at 14/7*, saw all the return shots, and looked for something else. I saw 13/8 24/22, and thinking that, if I am going to have to leave a direct shot, might as well leave fewer of them, and one that loses fewer pips if hit. After all, I am ahead in the pip count. And I picked up my dice.
Any advice on how to avoid eating Whoppers of this sort?