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Vegas Championship First Round; 17 min, 16-cube match; Blue's 16-Cube

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 22 April 2008, at 11:50 p.m.

In Response To: Vegas Championship First Round; 17 min, 16-cube match; Blue's 16-Cube (Bill Riles)

The 8-cube gammon price is just a little less than the normal 1/2 at this score and your gammon chances are probably only in the 15-20% range, so it's definitely not too good IMHO. Does White have a take? His takepoint's around 14% and a position has to be pretty bad to have less than 14% winning chances. Pretty sure he's got over 14% here Bill. Consider these sequences: You miss and he rolls a deuce right away; You hit but he eventually anchors and wins from there; You hit but can't get your back men out and have to crash your board; Plus there's the sequence where you hit and get your back men out, but never make the deuce and he wins a phantom deucepoint game.

You're a little short on builders - just 5s and duped 2s, and hitting loose to prevent him from anchoring is not a risk free proposition for you with White's strong 4-point board to impede your entry if he hits back. NR/T is my opinion.

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