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corrected diagram

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 23 April 2008, at 10:31 p.m.

In Response To: corrected diagram (Caryl Stephanson)

At this GG score, I think the dbl hit is slightly better than making the 4. If you make the 4, the game looks about even since White's up in the race but might not be able to get his back man out. Making the 4 leaves just 2 shots vs. 12 after the dbl hit. How is Blue doing if he dbl hits and White hits back? Not very good but White does have that blot on the deuce so 15% is my guesstimate. Being hit therefore costs us around 35% winning chances per roll. Since there are 10 addl hits, the total loss from being hit back is 350%. Can Blue make up this loss on the 26 non-hitters? I think so. 350/26 is about 13.5% per roll. So if the dbl hit - non return hit sequence increases our winning chances to around 60% and gives us an addl 4% or so more gammons, it's the better play. I think it does quite a bit more than this if White rolls a missing 6 (especially D6!), and a bit less if White enters both without hitting. On balance I think the gains outweigh the losses, so I vote for dbl hitting.

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