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crunched PvP - RO

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 7 March 2016, at 11:07 p.m.

In Response To: crunched PvP (Karol Szczerek)

The original position is a close call with a slight edge for the hit.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 102 13 point match pip: 77 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CaBDBC---------b-ccbb-bA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 32

1.	Rollout1	5/2* 4/2	eq: -0,478
	Player: Opponent: 27,40% (G:2,97% B:0,01%) 72,60% (G:11,03% B:0,32%) Conf.: ± 0,002 (-0,480...-0,475) - [100,0%] Duration: 8 minutes 13 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/22 4/1	eq: -0,499 (-0,021)
	Player: Opponent: 22,89% (G:5,47% B:0,05%) 77,11% (G:6,87% B:0,24%) Conf.: ± 0,003 (-0,502...-0,496) - [0,0%] Duration: 8 minutes 32 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/3 4/2*	eq: -0,510 (-0,032)
	Player: Opponent: 27,02% (G:3,23% B:0,02%) 72,98% (G:13,23% B:0,48%) Conf.: ± 0,003 (-0,513...-0,507) - [0,0%] Duration: 7 minutes 49 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Moving up prepares to jump, but we leave full roll to the opp, which he can use to attack our lone blot with everything except 52 (!). It seems that the time we buy by hitting with 5pt. board is good enough if we won't crunch further next turn too often (go below 5pt. board).

What's "not too often"? After 5/2* 4/2 we crunch next turn with only 3 rolls (33, 44, 55). After 6/3 4/2* we crunch next turn with 7 rolls (33, 44, 55, 65, 53), which is already too much.

Variant A

Compared to the original position, top player is adjusted 7/6.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 101 13 point match pip: 77 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CaBDBC---------b-bdbb-bA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 32

1.	Rollout1	24/22 4/1	eq: -0,404
	Player: Opponent: 26,20% (G:6,43% B:0,15%) 73,80% (G:6,07% B:0,20%) Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,409...-0,399) - [100,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 30 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/2* 4/2	eq: -0,465 (-0,061)
	Player: Opponent: 28,10% (G:2,64% B:0,01%) 71,90% (G:11,13% B:0,30%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,469...-0,460) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

As could be expected, a small change in opp's offense switches the top plays.

Again, only 52 doesn't hit, but now with 41 he has to break the bar to hit loose, and with 54 he should run instead of hit. Add the worse-playing covers next turn to the mix.
Impressive how such a small change swings the eq of the plays by .082.

Messages In This Thread

• crunched PvP
  Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 5 March 2016, at 1:57 p.m.
  • crunched PvP
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 5 March 2016, at 7:54 p.m.
  • crunched PvP - RO
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 7 March 2016, at 11:07 p.m.
    • crunched PvP - RO
      johnk -- Tuesday, 8 March 2016, at 9:02 p.m.
      • crunched PvP - RO
        Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 8 March 2016, at 10:57 p.m.
        • Thanks Karol *NM*
          johnk -- Wednesday, 9 March 2016, at 4:25 p.m.