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| XGID=-F-CBB-a--------bcbeb--AA-:1:1:-1:63:6:8:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 63 | |||||
The keys here are the five-prime owned by the Dillies and the crashed board of the Prime Factors. Almost any play that maintains the five-prime will win. The main goal for the Dilly Builders is to roll their prime forward.
Under these circumstances, slotting the 3 seems clear to me. The 6pt is badly over-stacked. It has three spare checkers on it, only two of which are needed to make the 5pt. When the Prime Factors hit, they will often be forced to break another point in their board at the same time. If rolls like 42 and 41 are used to hit, the Dillies will get a shot from he bar.
In fact, if the Prime Factors roll a 1 or 2, it is not clear to me that they should hit. Hitting won't put the Prime Factors in escape position, so the hit is usually counterproductive. All it does is delay the Dilly Builders and hasten the collapse of what is left of the Prime Factors' home board.
Often the Prime Factors will play a 1 by making an anchor (24/23), and play a 2 by advancing to escape position (23/21). Slotting carries no real risk at all.
After the Dillies slot this 3, the 6 is clear. It should be played from the rear. My strong preference, then, is for a play no one even suggested:
18/12, 6/3
Mike