For money play it is correct to go for it.
At GS or with a 3 point board it is a small blunder or close.
Ben's idea that correct to go for it at any score could get him several whoppers.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 94 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 76
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-FACBA----------bcbcbabB--:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/21* 5/2 | eq: -0.7978 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 17.41% (G:2.22% B:0.00%)
82.59% (G:21.00% B:0.71%) | Conf.: ±0.0063 (-0.8042...-0.7915) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 5/2 4/2 | eq: -0.8255 (-0.0277) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 12.14% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
87.86% (G:10.79% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ±0.0037 (-0.8293...-0.8218) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20.4 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 5/2 3/1 | eq: -0.8343 (-0.0365) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 12.29% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
87.71% (G:11.92% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ±0.0038 (-0.8381...-0.8305) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.9 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 4/2 4/1 | eq: -0.8444 (-0.0466) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 11.95% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
88.05% (G:12.08% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ±0.0040 (-0.8484...-0.8404) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17.4 seconds |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 5/3 4/1 | eq: -0.9030 (-0.1052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 12.37% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
87.63% (G:19.32% B:0.44%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16132000
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 94 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 76
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-FACBA----------bcbcbabB--:0:0:1:32:1:0:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/2 3/1 | eq: -1.0206 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 14.79% (G:1.47% B:0.01%)
85.21% (G:15.82% B:0.71%) | Conf.: ±0.0040 (-1.0247...-1.0166) - [50.7%]
Duration: 22.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 5/2 4/2 | eq: -1.0207 (-0.0001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 16.03% (G:1.90% B:0.01%)
83.97% (G:17.06% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ±0.0043 (-1.0250...-1.0164) - [49.3%]
Duration: 27.0 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 4/2 4/1 | eq: -1.0667 (-0.0461) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 15.84% (G:1.92% B:0.02%)
84.16% (G:19.18% B:1.10%) | Conf.: ±0.0044 (-1.0711...-1.0623) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.6 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 23/21* 5/2 | eq: -1.1002 (-0.0796) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19.10% (G:5.13% B:0.01%)
80.90% (G:24.12% B:1.30%) | Conf.: ±0.0059 (-1.1061...-1.0943) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59.2 seconds |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 5/3 4/1 | eq: -1.1444 (-0.1238) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 13.07% (G:0.52% B:0.00%)
86.93% (G:20.29% B:0.45%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16132000
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 94 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 73
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-FBD-A----------bcbcbabB--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/2 3/1 | eq: -1.0042 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 12.72% (G:0.30% B:0.00%)
87.28% (G:12.86% B:0.31%) | Conf.: ±0.0022 (-1.0064...-1.0019) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/21* 5/2 | eq: -1.1051 (-0.1009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 15.32% (G:1.69% B:0.00%)
84.68% (G:23.69% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ±0.0049 (-1.1100...-1.1002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16132000
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 94 | | 32 point match | pip: 76
score: 27
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-FACBA----------bcbcbabB--:4:1:1:32:27:0:0:32:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/2 3/1 | eq: -4.7786 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.51% (G:7.32% B:0.04%)
70.49% (G:19.39% B:1.04%) | Conf.: ±0.0608 (-4.8394...-4.7178) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30.6 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/21* 5/2 | eq: -5.9726 (-1.1939) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.77% (G:11.85% B:0.06%)
71.23% (G:24.62% B:1.42%) | Conf.: ±0.0742 (-6.0467...-5.8984) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.5 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 5/2 4/2 | eq: -4.7171 (+0.0615) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 23.29% (G:3.22% B:0.01%)
76.71% (G:18.57% B:0.64%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 4/2 4/1 | eq: -5.0134 (-0.2347) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.89% (G:3.30% B:0.01%)
77.11% (G:19.84% B:0.68%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 5/3 4/1 | eq: -6.2716 (-1.4930) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 20.86% (G:3.40% B:0.01%)
79.14% (G:25.25% B:1.27%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16132000
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross