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| XGID=--a---E-D---eD---d-e--A-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 42 | |||||
A good rule of thumb for positions like this is one I first heard from Nack. Either 5pt beats either 4pt. That rule applies, with exceptions, in the early game. According to that rule, Blue should make his 20pt.
Could this be an exception?
After White escapes one of his runners, one of Blue's priorities is to send another checker back. Blue can further this goal by keeping his checkers back on the 24pt and 22pt. If Blue instead makes an anchor on the 20pt, White will be able to play awkward rolls by dumping blots behind Blue's anchor.
Note as well, that White's last runner (on Blue's 2pt) is primed. Some of White's 6s play badly. When Blue makes his 4pt, 62 is added to White's list of awkward 6s. This may be what Nack was referring to in his earlier post when he said that Blue has an opportunity to block a key number.
A couple of other small circumstances make it less urgent to anchor. These probably have a smaller influence that the things discussed above.
- The checker White played down from his midpoint added to the stack on his 8pt. White was not able to diversify his spares in the outfield. Thus, Blue's need to anchor is diminished.
- Blue has four checkers on his own 8pt. After he makes his 4pt, he will still have a spare there.
Mike