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Your average every day double deuces - Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 7 April 2016, at 11:24 p.m.

In Response To: Your average every day double deuces - Rollout (Snua)

If it weren't for play #2, I think that it would not be too hard to "explain" many of the features of the top few plays. One starts with 7/5*(2), which most people can see is a plausible way to play the first two 2's. Then covering the 2pt just doesn't gain as much as hitting again—it still leaves a blot on the 1pt, and the 8pt and 2pt don't play well together. Similarly, the 11pt has reduced value once the 5pt is made, and getting the back checkers going is more strategically valuable than shuffling spares from the midpoint. I'm not sure that any verbal "explanation" is going to get you much further than that. At minimum one probably needs to go through all the rolls to get further insight.

Play #2 is the real doozy. While it's generally a good idea to make the 1pt once it's slotted, I wouldn't have thought that this principle would override making the 5pt. The pseudocubeless rollout numbers suggest that some wacky win/gammon tradeoff is partly to blame.

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