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| XGID=-a--aBD-B---dE---c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 43 | |||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I put a large number of similar fourth-roll positions in my rollout queue last week. All had 32 as the roll.
There are generally three choices for Blue.
- Hit and down: H = 13/10, 8/4*
- Hit and split: X = 24/21, 8/4*
- Hit twice: K = 8/4*/1*
I spotted a couple trends in the XGR++ evals for 32.
When Blue owns a strong point in his inner board, especially his 4pt or 5pt, hit-and-down is usually correct. Due to his strong position, Blue can sustain being hit, and when he is not hit, he can develop naturally. An efficient cube may soon follow.
Even when Blue owns his 3pt, hit-and-down is usually correct. It gives Blue a great opportunity to fill one of the gaps in his board.
When the opponent White has a strong position, hitting twice rises in equity. Putting two up is safer than hitting just one. If, for instance, Blue has opened with a non-point-maker, such as 65R or 51S, then hitting twice often came out on top.
In a small number of intermediate cases, hit-and-split was the winner.
In this position, I like H (hit-and-down) = 13/10, 8/4*.
Because Blue owns his 5pt, while his opponent has only his 3pt, Blue should play aggressively. Ergo, the single hit. After hitting, I like 13/10 better than 24/21. Hit-and-split creates too many attacking options for White. I have not counted shots, but I suspect that hit-and-down just as safe as hit-and-split. It may be safer. More importantly, hit-and-down unstacks a midpoint that is heavy at the moment, and creates another cover, in case White misses the shot.
Mike