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53P-31P-53S-43 plus Nack's Variants – XGR++ Evals

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 24 April 2016, at 7:56 p.m.

In Response To: 53P-31P-53S-43 -- Key factor (Nack Ballard)

Comparing H and K

Thanks Nack! This was a great exercise.

In my OP, I mentioned that I recently studied a group of similar positions where the roll was 32. In those, the hit came with a 2, so there was no example of breaking the 8pt to hit. That meant that I never got a feel for how that factors into the decision. These exercises gave me some experience with that. Now I will go back, and try the 43 roll in my other examples.

Here were my guesses before checking XG. I was only interested in gauging the H/K margin. In some positions, it is possible that neither was the top play.

1a. K by a small amount
1b. H is clear
1c. H by small amount

2a. H is clear
2b. H is close
2c. H by small amount

Here are the XGR++ evals (if you zoom back, you should see side-by-side board positions):

Position 1a

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aBD-B---dE---c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	24/21 24/20	eq: -0.0743
	Player: Opponent: 48.67% (G:11.30% B:0.45%) 51.33% (G:14.14% B:0.50%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/5 8/4*	eq: -0.0817 (-0.0074)
	Player: Opponent: 48.22% (G:15.08% B:0.52%) 51.78% (G:16.61% B:1.18%)
3.	XG Roller++	8/4* 4/1*	eq: -0.0847 (-0.0104)
	Player: Opponent: 47.72% (G:16.47% B:0.40%) 52.28% (G:17.13% B:1.16%)
4.	XG Roller++	13/10 8/4*	eq: -0.0982 (-0.0239)
	Player: Opponent: 48.81% (G:15.06% B:0.60%) 51.19% (G:18.56% B:1.90%)
5.	XG Roller++	24/21 8/4*	eq: -0.1126 (-0.0383)
	Player: Opponent: 47.84% (G:14.06% B:0.54%) 52.16% (G:17.99% B:1.25%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 1b

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aBD-B---dE---c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	13/10 6/4*	eq: +0.1060
	Player: Opponent: 53.30% (G:16.54% B:0.71%) 46.70% (G:16.05% B:1.40%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/21 6/4*	eq: +0.0683 (-0.0377)
	Player: Opponent: 52.29% (G:15.01% B:0.58%) 47.71% (G:15.27% B:0.88%)
3.	XG Roller++	6/4* 4/1*	eq: -0.0045 (-0.1105)
	Player: Opponent: 49.78% (G:16.09% B:0.41%) 50.22% (G:15.74% B:0.94%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 

Position 2a

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 165 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aBC-C---dE---c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	13/10 8/4*	eq: +0.1060
	Player: Opponent: 53.30% (G:16.54% B:0.71%) 46.70% (G:16.05% B:1.40%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/21 8/4*	eq: +0.0683 (-0.0377)
	Player: Opponent: 52.29% (G:15.01% B:0.58%) 47.71% (G:15.27% B:0.88%)
3.	XG Roller++	8/4* 4/1*	eq: -0.0045 (-0.1105)
	Player: Opponent: 49.78% (G:16.09% B:0.41%) 50.22% (G:15.74% B:0.94%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2b

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 165 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aBC-C---dE---c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	13/10 6/4*	eq: +0.0639
	Player: Opponent: 52.71% (G:14.96% B:0.62%) 47.29% (G:16.74% B:1.47%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/21 6/4*	eq: +0.0260 (-0.0379)
	Player: Opponent: 51.56% (G:13.83% B:0.56%) 48.44% (G:16.16% B:0.91%)
3.	XG Roller++	8/5 6/4*	eq: -0.0184 (-0.0822)
	Player: Opponent: 50.24% (G:14.52% B:0.54%) 49.76% (G:16.40% B:1.20%)
4.	XG Roller++	6/4* 4/1*	eq: -0.0726 (-0.1364)
	Player: Opponent: 48.68% (G:13.99% B:0.42%) 51.32% (G:16.49% B:0.98%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 

Position 3a

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aBE-A---dE---c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	13/10 8/4*	eq: -0.0816
	Player: Opponent: 48.25% (G:15.64% B:0.56%) 51.75% (G:17.19% B:1.48%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/4* 4/1*	eq: -0.1063 (-0.0247)
	Player: Opponent: 47.11% (G:15.36% B:0.38%) 52.89% (G:16.30% B:0.98%)
3.	XG Roller++	24/21 8/4*	eq: -0.1136 (-0.0321)
	Player: Opponent: 47.31% (G:14.25% B:0.50%) 52.69% (G:16.55% B:0.97%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3b

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aBE-A---dE---c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	8/5 6/4*	eq: -0.0816
	Player: Opponent: 48.13% (G:15.43% B:0.52%) 51.87% (G:16.71% B:1.21%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/10 6/4*	eq: -0.0836 (-0.0020)
	Player: Opponent: 48.95% (G:15.33% B:0.60%) 51.05% (G:18.66% B:1.95%)
3.	XG Roller++	6/4* 4/1*	eq: -0.0880 (-0.0064)
	Player: Opponent: 47.73% (G:16.01% B:0.39%) 52.27% (G:16.88% B:1.16%)
4.	XG Roller++	24/21 6/4*	eq: -0.1069 (-0.0253)
	Player: Opponent: 47.96% (G:13.85% B:0.51%) 52.04% (G:17.83% B:1.24%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 

Mike

Messages In This Thread

• 53P-31P-53S-43
  John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 21 April 2016, at 9:37 p.m.
  • 53P-31P-53S-43
    gudgen -- Friday, 22 April 2016, at 12:34 a.m.
  • 53P-31P-53S-43
    Taper_Mike -- Friday, 22 April 2016, at 12:40 a.m.
    • 53P-31P-53S-43 – Spoiler Alert
      Taper_Mike -- Friday, 22 April 2016, at 12:48 a.m.
      • 53P-31P-53S-43 -- Key factor
        Nack Ballard -- Friday, 22 April 2016, at 3:13 a.m.
        • P.S.
          Nack Ballard -- Friday, 22 April 2016, at 3:21 a.m.
        • 53P-31P-53S-43 -- Key factor
          gudgen -- Sunday, 24 April 2016, at 3:23 a.m.
        • 53P-31P-53S-43 plus Nack's Variants – XGR++ Evals
          Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 24 April 2016, at 7:56 p.m.
  • 53P-31P-53S-43
    scotty -- Friday, 22 April 2016, at 1:33 a.m.
  • RO
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 5:03 a.m.
    • RO (15k)
      Colin Owen -- Tuesday, 26 April 2016, at 1:24 p.m.
    • RO (46k)
      Colin Owen -- Wednesday, 27 April 2016, at 11:34 a.m.
    • RO (140k)
      Colin Owen -- Friday, 29 April 2016, at 11:35 a.m.
      • Thank you! (RO (140k))
        Wolfgang -- Friday, 29 April 2016, at 3:09 p.m.