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BGonline.org Forums
PR and win ratio
Posted By: Keene In Response To: PR and win ratio (Terje Pedersen)
Date: Wednesday, 4 May 2016, at 3:30 p.m.
Ray F once conjectured to me (at least me) that he believes there is a winning sweet spot around the 3-5 area - but that was just a vague recollection of mine, so the numbers could be off. I tend to agree with him.
My perspective (unquantified) is that most often when you play a really low PR then your decisions tended to be easy, and you were just adversely affected by luck - fewer meaningful decisions, more variance on the luck factor. For example when your opponent blitzes you after you play a perfect 3, 4 or 5 roll sequence, suddenly you get hit, dance on the bar, and its forced play from there onwards, and your PR is 0, your opponents could be anywhere, depending on how well he/she blitzed. On the flip side of this, if you are the blitzer, its really really hard to be perfect during that sequence, there are little 0.02's and 0.03's that are easy to make, just because you didnt fully optimize builders, or you chose to run a last checker a roll too early, or you misjudged a minor roll that has low impact to the position (little numbers most often).
This seems to be the thing that I see. So, its easier to score a lower PR when you are losing than it is when you win. A framing that I think of when I am experiencing those is that if I played really well and won, thats great! But if I played average for me and won, then thats OK. I tend to not weigh the played really well and lost ones in as much as I do the other two scenarios.
K
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