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PR and win ratio

Posted By: Keene
Date: Wednesday, 4 May 2016, at 4:26 p.m.

In Response To: PR and win ratio (phil simborg)

PS: There is no question in my mind that the lower the PR, the more you will win in the long run.

I agree with this, however the dataset required to formally hypothesize this is very large, and its of high value. However in the smaller subset of matches that individual players will experience, when you break down the categories into the manner of the victory / loss - or a ratio of forced to non forced moves, or moves outside of the early game, then there will be a trending towards my thinking.

You made several other points, which I also agree with:

PS: The way to find a true ratio between PR and wins is to look at the overall PR of the player and see how often that player wins....I am sure you will see that lower PR players win more, in the long run.

As for Stick, or anyone with low PR's not winning much, I am convinced that is only short term, however, there may be other reasons.

Maybe Stick's average PR's on Sundays are worse than his average PR's the rest of the time? Maybe he is worse when he gets tired, or maybe he's not as good under pressure in the finals....or more likely, maybe a study of his luck factors will show he has simply been unlucky, and we all know that in the long run that will even out.

I disagree with the bolded - it is not necessarily true that any player will experience enough matches for the luck to truly even out fully. Some players might just be lucky or unlucky over the lifetime of their play.

K

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