Thanks for all the comments and hints.
I guess I'm in this awful spot where I'm good enough to see the fancy plays a begginner would never consider, but not quite good enough to weigh them properly. So I make all kind of those fancy, unexpected blunders like I almost did here.
I couldn't tell if this one might be close at DMP, so I did the math which led me to 7% more GWC for the hitting play at the cost of 17% more gammons. Miles away. It was the hitting play that turned out to be the hard nut to crack properly OTB.
Below are the rollouts for the original position, DMP and variant.
Original position @ NMS
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 65 | | 13 point match | pip: 99
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--ABBaC-BC-B----a---bbccc-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
1. | Rollout1 | 9/4 6/2 | eq: -0,032 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41,63% (G:1,38% B:0,03%)
58,37% (G:2,35% B:0,01%) | Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,042...-0,022) - [100,0%]
Duration: 21,3 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/4 9/5* | eq: -0,189 (-0,157) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42,46% (G:2,77% B:0,07%)
57,54% (G:23,49% B:0,19%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,196...-0,182) - [0,0%]
Duration: 34,4 seconds |
|
| |
1 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Original positions @ DMP
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 65 | | 1 point match | pip: 99
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--ABBaC-BC-B----a---bbccc-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 9/4 9/5* | eq: -0,146 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42,70% (G:2,45% B:0,07%)
57,30% (G:24,08% B:0,11%) | Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,151...-0,141) - [100,0%]
Duration: 25,5 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/4 6/2 | eq: -0,162 (-0,016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41,90% (G:1,19% B:0,03%)
58,10% (G:3,69% B:0,00%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,166...-0,158) - [0,0%]
Duration: 12,9 seconds |
|
| |
1 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant A
Compared to the original position, top player is adjusted 5/4(2).
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 63 | | 13 point match | pip: 99
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--ABBaC-BC-B----a----dccc-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 9/4 9/5* | eq: +0,097 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51,58% (G:3,94% B:0,10%)
48,42% (G:15,96% B:0,12%) | Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,089...+0,105) - [100,0%]
Duration: 45,9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/4 6/2 | eq: -0,021 (-0,118) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42,27% (G:1,27% B:0,03%)
57,73% (G:2,11% B:0,02%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,028...-0,014) - [0,0%]
Duration: 23,0 seconds |
|
| |
1 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2