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Pitt. Memorial Cup Finals #15 - Next?

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Thursday, 1 May 2008, at 3:01 p.m.

In Response To: Pitt. Memorial Cup Finals #15 - Next? (Stick)

Computers are so much better than humans at positions like this since we don't always know whether or not the blots will be hit when hitting is possible (after 20-11). I expect that Blue will hit on some, but not all opportunities after 20-11. So, it isn't as simple as cases of wanting to be hit or not wanting to be hit. We need to think a little deeper.

Leaving the blots in front of the 5 anchor requires breaking the anchor to hit. Leaving a single blot on the 15 allows a hit with a spare and retains the anchor. After 20-15, 13-9 / 3-1, 3-3, 3-4, 3-5 & 5-5 look like strong hits for Blue. I don't see rolls this good after 20-11 except possibly 4-4. I believe the positions play similar when Blue does not hit. So, 20-11 may be best - it allows fewer effective hits.

I wouldn't have made this play over the board. How do we notice potential plays like this for consideration OTB? I think the key fundamental here is "leave a blot in front of a stripped point rather than a point with a spare."

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