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a bias in rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 2 May 2008, at 7:24 a.m.

In Response To: a bias in rollouts (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Thanks for the explanation, I agree with everything you said, and aside from the odd/even ply effect I see no use for it. I don't care much about 2 ply v. 3 ply so it's out the window for me. If I am uncertain of 2 ply I do a rollout, it's not like I'm going to hit 3 ply and magically think Voilą! That's the answer! As you said, rollouts are the best tool we have.

Also, for myself at least, I am usually not concerned with the absolute equity of a position, I'm concerned with whether play A is better than play B or C. As long as the rollout results meet Chuck's statistical significance between the plays I don't care if the equity has been overestimated by a minute bit, I care that one play is clearly best and why that play is best. If they're all so close that it's a pick 'em, well they're that close, again, who cares if the equity of one is over by .003 if it's only ahead of the other two plays by .003?

Stick

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