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Stepped Rollout

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Saturday, 3 May 2008, at 7:51 a.m.

In Response To: Lopsided score (Ian Dunstan)

The score is: White 1, Blue 13 (match to 15 points)

Move: Blue to play 51

White153


1O '2X '1X3X3X2X1O ' ' '

2X1X '2O2O3O2O3O1X '1O '

Blue125

Position ID: THcDBDTYbkcQIA Match ID: cInmARAAaAAA

• Blue moves 8/2*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.9901(Money: +1.0792)
80.11% 43.99% 6.60% - 19.89% 2.84% 0.05%
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.8726
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.1274
3.Double, take +0.6076 -0.2650
Proper cube action:No double, take (67.5%)

I had trouble with this play. I tossed up between playing 24/23 16/11 and 8/2*.

Hitting clearly wins more gammons and appears to lose only 1% less games than the quieter play. Just winning the game is the overriding factor I think; the extra gammons and preventing White from easily making his 5pt are not enough to make the loose hit right.

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.019)

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/23 16/11 +0.7027
74.51% 35.11% 12.86%- 25.49% 3.89% 0.12% +0.7239 +0.7027
0.15% 0.31% 0.41%- 0.15% 0.08% 0.01% 0.0042 0.0054
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 826023468 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 12 plies:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
• 2 R 8/2* +0.6837 ( -0.0190)
73.50% 39.80% 20.59%- 26.50% 5.39% 0.34% +0.7358 +0.6837
0.20% 0.31% 0.50%- 0.20% 0.09% 0.02% 0.0054 0.0069
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 826023468 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 12 plies:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 16/11 8/7 +0.6688 ( -0.0339)
73.32% 35.04% 13.53%- 26.68% 4.34% 0.14% +0.6974 +0.6688
0.23% 0.41% 0.55%- 0.23% 0.10% 0.01% 0.0057 0.0079
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1526 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 826023468 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 12 plies:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R 11/5 +0.6687 ( -0.0341)
73.33% 35.81% 14.80%- 26.67% 4.23% 0.20% +0.7001 +0.6687
0.20% 0.43% 0.55%- 0.20% 0.10% 0.02% 0.0056 0.0074
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1475 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 826023468 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 12 plies:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5 2 16/11 6/5 +0.6978 ( -0.0049)
76.42% 30.78% 2.40% - 23.58% 4.48% 0.09%
6 2 24/23 11/6 +0.6825 ( -0.0202)
75.93% 34.30% 3.20% - 24.07% 5.15% 0.11%

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