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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 28 June 2016, at 3:06 p.m.

In Response To: Redouble at –5–4? (Paul Weaver)

Rollout results of the same position at nine scores are posted below.

		White is peever score: 1 pip: 103 5 point match pip: 148 score: 0 Blue is Pipshark
XGID=--a-B-DBBa---Ca--b-cabAbbA:1:1:1:00:0:1:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	45.07% (G:13.65% B:1.48%)	45.62% (G:13.36% B:2.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	54.93% (G:37.13% B:0.89%)	54.38% (G:38.31% B:0.46%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.475	-0.112
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	-0.171 (-0.059)	±0.011 (-0.182..-0.160)
Redouble/Take:	-0.112	±0.013 (-0.125..-0.099)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.112)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is peever score: 0 pip: 103 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 148 score: 0 Blue is Pipshark
XGID=--a-B-DBBa---Ca--b-cabAbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	44.86% (G:12.74% B:0.93%)	45.44% (G:13.60% B:1.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	55.14% (G:35.49% B:0.49%)	54.56% (G:35.61% B:0.38%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.326	-0.608
Cubeful Equities
No double:	-0.227	±0.008 (-0.235..-0.219)
Double/Beaver:	-1.643 (-1.415)	±0.035 (-1.677..-1.608)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.227)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 34.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is peever score: 4 pip: 103 6 point match pip: 148 score: 3 Blue is Pipshark
XGID=--a-B-DBBa---Ca--b-cabAbbA:0:0:1:00:3:4:0:6:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	45.14% (G:13.74% B:1.47%)	45.34% (G:14.07% B:2.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	54.86% (G:37.24% B:1.04%)	54.66% (G:38.59% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.605	-0.176
Cubeful Equities
No double:	-0.285 (-0.108)	±0.013 (-0.298..-0.272)
Double/Take:	-0.176	±0.014 (-0.191..-0.162)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.176)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 23 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is peever score: 3 pip: 103 5 point match pip: 148 score: 1 Blue is Pipshark
XGID=--a-B-DBBa---Ca--b-cabAbbA:0:0:1:00:1:3:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	45.01% (G:13.87% B:1.43%)	44.87% (G:14.48% B:2.40%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	54.99% (G:36.99% B:0.99%)	55.13% (G:38.90% B:0.47%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.587	+0.034
Cubeful Equities
No double:	-0.179 (-0.213)	±0.015 (-0.194..-0.164)
Double/Take:	+0.034	±0.016 (+0.018..+0.051)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.966)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 27 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is peever score: 3 pip: 103 5 point match pip: 148 score: 0 Blue is Pipshark
XGID=--a-B-DBBa---Ca--b-cabAbbA:0:0:1:00:0:3:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	45.04% (G:13.96% B:1.11%)	45.00% (G:14.36% B:1.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	54.96% (G:36.84% B:0.89%)	55.00% (G:38.74% B:0.51%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.648	-0.244
Cubeful Equities
No double:	-0.326 (-0.083)	±0.013 (-0.340..-0.313)
Double/Take:	-0.244	±0.016 (-0.260..-0.228)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.244)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is peever score: 3 pip: 103 5 point match pip: 148 score: 0 Blue is Pipshark
XGID=--a-B-DBBa---Ca--b-cabAbbA:0:0:1:00:0:3:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	45.04% (G:13.96% B:1.11%)	45.00% (G:14.36% B:1.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	54.96% (G:36.84% B:0.89%)	55.00% (G:38.74% B:0.51%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.648	-0.244
Cubeful Equities
No double:	-0.326 (-0.083)	±0.013 (-0.340..-0.313)
Double/Take:	-0.244	±0.016 (-0.260..-0.228)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.244)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is peever score: 0 pip: 103 4 point match pip: 148 score: 0 Blue is Pipshark
XGID=--a-B-DBBa---Ca--b-cabAbbA:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	44.87% (G:12.30% B:1.63%)	45.64% (G:12.27% B:1.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	55.13% (G:35.42% B:0.81%)	54.36% (G:37.46% B:0.42%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.557	-0.258
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	-0.270 (-0.012)	±0.012 (-0.282..-0.258)
Redouble/Take:	-0.258	±0.014 (-0.272..-0.244)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.258)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		89.9%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is peever score: 2 pip: 103 6 point match pip: 148 score: 0 Blue is Pipshark
XGID=--a-B-DBBa---Ca--b-cabAbbA:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:6:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	45.09% (G:13.71% B:1.48%)	45.38% (G:14.03% B:2.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	54.91% (G:37.27% B:1.03%)	54.62% (G:38.45% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.410	-0.002
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	-0.094 (-0.092)	±0.010 (-0.105..-0.084)
Redouble/Take:	-0.002	±0.012 (-0.014..+0.009)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.002)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is peever score: 0 pip: 103 6 point match pip: 148 score: 0 Blue is Pipshark
XGID=--a-B-DBBa---Ca--b-cabAbbA:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:6:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	45.29% (G:13.68% B:1.35%)	45.73% (G:13.45% B:1.94%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	54.71% (G:35.99% B:0.58%)	54.27% (G:37.15% B:1.17%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.328	-0.512
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	-0.159	±0.010 (-0.168..-0.149)
Redouble/Take:	-0.605 (-0.447)	±0.014 (-0.619..-0.592)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.159)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 37 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Redouble at –5–4?
  Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 28 June 2016, at 1:02 a.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 28 June 2016, at 3:06 p.m.
    • Rollout Results Posted
      Martin -- Tuesday, 28 June 2016, at 5:22 p.m.