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A restating of the situation

Posted By: Florin Popa
Date: Friday, 1 July 2016, at 1:48 p.m.

In Response To: A restating of the situation (Bob Koca)

"Without even knowing how the luck adjusted value is arrived at why are you taking it as a complete given that it is the luck adjusted value that is in error? " Iol, is trivial, I can't be favourite against XG but for sure I threw away some MWC because of my errors.

"There is a difference between losing 5.5% MWC and XG opining that you lost 5.5% MWC" So you mean even this parameter is not so reliable ?

I found one post where Xavier said: "Errors in equity or MWC are simply added and can be greater than 1 or 100% respectivly in a DMP. The only time I renormalize MWC is on the line "Luck base rating" in the match summary. I apply the following formula

VR := Result - DeltaCostLuck; VR := 1 / (1 + exp((0.5 - VR) * 4)); This insure that a player cannot be more than 100% (or less than 0%) favorite. The slope is 1 around 0.5 so for most practical uses the value reported is very close to the difference of luck MWC."

Saying that I was favourite 50.8% after I lost 5.5% MWC compared to 0 is not a close difference in my perception. Am I wrong ?

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