Over the board, I didn't think I want to slow the bear in down by killing sixes. I was thinking that the defender is not on the verge of busting. And I still think the same. Killing sixes is the wrong reasoning for the right move. We need spares on the 4 point, me thinks.
I played the 2nd best move according to the rollout. Guess what? Opponent danced and I rolled 64. 55 would have also been a bad roll, but it is bad after the best play, too.
        
 
            
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 179 | | 1 point match | pip: 90
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=abbBBCE-A--AA--a--bcbb----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 12/6 11/8 | eq: +0.142 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.12% (G:36.35% B:19.08%)
42.88% (G:0.93% B:0.04%) | Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.128...+0.156)
Duration: 23 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| * 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5 8/5 | eq: +0.116 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.81% (G:35.97% B:19.89%)
44.19% (G:0.48% B:0.02%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.103...+0.129)
Duration: 13 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 12/9 11/5 | eq: +0.116 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.79% (G:35.83% B:20.55%)
44.21% (G:1.11% B:0.11%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.103...+0.129)
Duration: 22 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 11/5 6/3 | eq: +0.113 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.66% (G:35.89% B:20.80%)
44.34% (G:1.67% B:0.16%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.101...+0.125)
Duration: 14 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 12/3 | eq: +0.100 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.02% (G:35.18% B:19.60%)
44.98% (G:1.28% B:0.30%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.087...+0.113)
Duration: 7 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 12/6 8/5 | eq: +0.098 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.89% (G:34.49% B:19.42%)
45.11% (G:0.15% B:0.01%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.085...+0.111)
Duration: 12 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross