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21$-64K-F-21 – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 4 July 2016, at 8:22 p.m.

In Response To: 21$-64K-F-21 – It's hard to go wrong... (Taper_Mike)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 198 Unlimited Game pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bb----E-C---dEA--c-d----A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: +0.5338
	Player: Opponent: 60.46% (G:22.53% B:2.09%) 39.54% (G:8.89% B:0.41%) Conf.: ±0.0032 (+0.5307...+0.5370) - [98.2%] Duration: 11 hours 30 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/11 8/7	eq: +0.5293 (-0.0045)
	Player: Opponent: 60.25% (G:23.15% B:2.16%) 39.75% (G:8.78% B:0.38%) Conf.: ±0.0028 (+0.5265...+0.5321) - [1.8%] Duration: 12 hours 00 minute
3.	Rollout2	14/11	eq: +0.5166 (-0.0172)
	Player: Opponent: 60.05% (G:22.32% B:1.98%) 39.95% (G:8.65% B:0.35%) Conf.: ±0.0038 (+0.5128...+0.5204) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 hours 22 minutes
4.	Rollout3	13/10	eq: +0.5124 (-0.0215)
	Player: Opponent: 59.75% (G:23.11% B:2.16%) 40.25% (G:8.71% B:0.38%) Conf.: ±0.0056 (+0.5068...+0.5180) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 08 minutes
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 48040528 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 48040528 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 48040528 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2016-Jun-20 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 21$-64K-F-21-n-tm.xgp n[$ d5 Z17 D21] "<=62*31 15 n[$ d11 Z23 D24] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

There is nothing wrong with making the obvious play, d = 13/11 8/7.

It turns out, however, that this is an oddball position where slotting a point in your home board—with the opponent on the roof—turns out to be correct. The opponent will have 13 hitters from the bar. If he misses, a favorable cube action is probably not far away.

For all but the most advanced players, there is not much to learn here. OTB, you should just make the obvious play. Nevertheless, I find this position interesting.

I like slotting the bar point because it limits the size of the potential error. If I were to try to guess when slotting the 5pt were better, the times I was wrong would probably be huge mistakes. By comparison, the equity lost in slotting the bar point is likely to be small.

As it is here.

Mike

Messages In This Thread

• 21$-64K-F-21 – It's hard to go wrong...
  Taper_Mike -- Friday, 1 July 2016, at 11:01 p.m.
  • 21$-64K-F-21 – It's hard to go wrong...
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 1 July 2016, at 11:06 p.m.
    • Same here *NM*
      gudgen -- Friday, 1 July 2016, at 11:40 p.m.
  • 21$-64K-F-21 – It's hard to go wrong...
    Igor -- Saturday, 2 July 2016, at 12:10 a.m.
    • 21$-64K-F-21 – It's hard to go wrong...
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 2 July 2016, at 12:32 a.m.
      • 21$-64K-F-21 – It's hard to go wrong...
        Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 2 July 2016, at 7:28 a.m.
  • 21$-64K-F-21 – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 4 July 2016, at 8:22 p.m.