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How to use a MET in matchplay

Posted By: TraumaBG
Date: Wednesday, 6 July 2016, at 11:38 a.m.

In Response To: How to use a MET in matchplay (sebalotek)

If you double and he drops. 11A/2A so 6% winning chances for you opponent.

If you double and he takes. This is a unique situation because if he takes and you don't roll doubles right away he will double you to 16 to play for the match. So if he takes and wins your equity is 0% but if he takes and loses your equity is 100%

Take point is risk/risk + gain so 6/(6+94) or 6%

On your next roll you win about 17/100 times with doubles. The other 83 times your opponent doubles you to play for the match and wins about 1 in 6 of those or almost 14 games. He has a clear take to play for the match....that being said I'm not sure why your XG is saying it's a mistake to not double, when I put it in it's a mistake to double.

OTB you should know the MET is 94%/6% at 11a/2a and make an estimate as to your opponents winning chances in the position and make your decision accordingly.

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