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Wildly Divergent Opinions

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 5 May 2008, at 2:50 p.m.

In Response To: Wildly Divergent Opinions (Bill Riles)

It's not at all clear that White has a take, so Blue should certainly send it over. White's takepoint (depending on the MET used) is around 27% plus around 47% of Blue's gammons. How often does Blue win a gammon here? Certainly better than the 13% or so he has in the starting position. Blue's got a 3 1/2 pt board with one White checker on the roof and 2 more blots to shoot at. D2 is a super joker and Blue's got 6 other rolls that put 2 men up vs. a 4 pt board and 7 more that put 2 up vs. a 4 1/2 pt board. This looks like around 30% g's to me which raises White's takepoint to around 41%. I don't think Blue wins this position that often so it looks like a pass.

I don't think it's too good (White wins some gammons here too and they are extremely valuable to White if the cube stays in the center) and even if it is technically too good, there's a decent chance that White might (incorrectly IMHO) take.

D/P is my opinion.

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