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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 7 July 2016, at 10:38 p.m.

In Response To: Michigan Match Double? Eleven Shots From The Roof (Paul Weaver)

Both Left (the original position) and Right (a variation) have the same pip count. Why is Left a no double but Right a double? Hint: count how many hitters make a six-prime in Left and Right. Also count how many non-hitters make a six-prime in Left and Right. Also, if Blue never moves again until after he gets closed out, he loses more Gs in Left than in Right. Finally, if contact is broken, Blue will (on average) have a slightly better distribution for the bearoff in Right than in Left. These factors may seem tiny, but evidently, they make the difference between double and no double.

Is there anyone out there who could have figured out over the board that Left is no double and Right is double? Not in Alabama, where I live, but perhaps elsewhere.

White is Greg Merriman score: 5 pip: 93 9 point match pip: 103 score: 3 Blue is Paul Weaver XGID=---BCCBBA--Ad------bd-abbA:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 50.25% (G:15.97% B:0.26%) 50.84% (G:15.42% B:0.23%) Opponent Winning Chances: 49.75% (G:3.61% B:0.07%) 49.16% (G:3.66% B:0.10%) Cubeless Equities +0.144 +0.247 Cubeful Equities No double: -0.039 ±0.005 (-0.044..-0.034) Double/Take: -0.053 (-0.014) ±0.006 (-0.059..-0.047) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.039) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.3% Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 40 minutes 32 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Greg Merriman score: 5 pip: 93 9 point match pip: 103 score: 3 Blue is Paul Weaver XGID=---BBCCBAA--d------bd-abbA:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 50.82% (G:16.39% B:0.26%) 51.39% (G:16.15% B:0.22%) Opponent Winning Chances: 49.18% (G:3.01% B:0.10%) 48.61% (G:3.16% B:0.11%) Cubeless Equities +0.167 +0.304 Cubeful Equities No double: -0.017 (-0.015) ±0.005 (-0.022..-0.013) Double/Take: -0.003 ±0.006 (-0.009..+0.003) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.003) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 35 minutes 09 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Michigan Match Double? Eleven Shots From The Roof
  Paul Weaver -- Thursday, 7 July 2016, at 1:13 p.m.
  • Michigan Match Double? Eleven Shots From The Roof
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 7 July 2016, at 2:03 p.m.
  • Michigan Match Double? Eleven Shots From The Roof
    Keene -- Thursday, 7 July 2016, at 2:16 p.m.
  • Michigan Match Double? Eleven Shots From The Roof
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 7 July 2016, at 10:25 p.m.
    • Michigan Match Double? Eleven Shots From The Roof
      Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 7 July 2016, at 10:35 p.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted
    Paul Weaver -- Thursday, 7 July 2016, at 10:38 p.m.
    • Rollout Results Posted
      ah_clem -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 12:58 p.m.