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Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 10:17 a.m.

In Response To: Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position (Rick Janowski)

I did not consider a match score here, assuming it to be for money. Compared to the OLM match, we are facing a 5-point board instead of a 4-point board with a blot, so our gammon chances have gone down a bit and our losing chances have increased. Furthermore, in the original we have a considerable threat of making the bar soon, not the case here. Now almost any sequence where our opponent enters next turn becomes a take. Risks have increased, rewards have gone down, so I cash.

If I'd trail by a lot, I would roll, as our cube in the sequences where our opp enters immediately has become stronger. If I'd lead by a lot and get close to the end, I would not double because of the take & immediate recube possibility.

I like playing on in these type of positions for several reasons, one being that usually people are not aggressive enough in going after the gammon, so they might think I am dumb, which is fine. Second, I have got the weirdest cube actions after playing on for the gammon and cubing after a bad sequence. I am not entirely sure what happens psychologically, but for some people it is unsettling not to get cubed out in such position.

So I have studied these positions a bit over the years and know the more important themes.

Messages In This Thread

• Accounting for uncertainty
  Bob Koca -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 4:27 p.m.
  • Accounting for uncertainty
    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 4:41 p.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 4:59 p.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 2:56 a.m.
  • Accounting for uncertainty
    Rick Janowski -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 4:50 p.m.
    • I am referring to second position there *NM*
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 4:52 p.m.
  • Accounting for uncertainty
    Rick Janowski -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 5:22 p.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 5:29 p.m.
      • Accounting for uncertainty - Agreed *NM*
        Rick Janowski -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 5:37 p.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 3:57 a.m.
      • Accounting for uncertainty
        Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 7:56 a.m.
        • Accounting for uncertainty
          neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 3:00 p.m.
          • Accounting for uncertainty
            Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 3:55 p.m.
            • Accounting for uncertainty
              Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 4:21 p.m.
              • Accounting for uncertainty
                neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 4:48 p.m.
              • Accounting for uncertainty
                Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 3:03 a.m.
  • Accounting for uncertainty--Uncertainty works both ways
    Phil Simborg -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 3:08 a.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty--Uncertainty works both ways
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 3:25 a.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty--Uncertainty works both ways
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 9:13 p.m.
  • XGR++ RO
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 2:56 p.m.
  • Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position
    Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 3:45 a.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position
      Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 6:43 a.m.
      • Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position
        Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 9:30 a.m.
        • Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position
          Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 10:17 a.m.
          • Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position
            Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 6:32 p.m.